Azerbaijan was once Israel's strongest Muslim ally. Not anymore now

When Israeli military and Palestinian militants clashed over the decision by the Israeli court to evict six Arab families from Jerusalem, little expected it would escalate into a full-blown conflict, with Israeli military now tries to flatten entire Gaza strip in accusation of the Hamas militants firing rockets to the country.

Usually, Israel's actions would always receive condemnations from the majority of Muslim world. This time, no exception. But one country, once being Israel's strongest ally in the Islamic world, has now instead only expressed reservation. This was Azerbaijan, the Caucasus Shiite Muslim nation bordering Russia and Iran. The country's strange silence is abnormal because, in the past, Azerbaijan played an even more active role: it mediated between Israel and the Muslim nations; being one of only a few Muslim-majority states to not condemn Israel. So what happened?

Israel and Azerbaijan have a unique relationship that made Azerbaijan the best Muslim ally for Israel. This was inherited by Turkey's good relations with the Jewish nation, at least prior to the rise of Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. This is proceeded by the fact that both Azerbaijan and Turkey share a common cultural tie, being Turkic nations despite religious differences. Late Azerbaijani President and father of the current Azerbaijani leader, Heydar Aliyev, for once told that Turkey and Azerbaijan are "two nations within one state". The Turkish-Israeli alliance, back then, gave strategic impetus for Israel to ally with Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan is now Israel's second-largest weapon buyer only after India, and trades between two countries are over 110 million dollars, thus exceeded expectation. And nothing better proves the action of Israel: Karabakh and Iran.

The war in Karabakh, an exclave internationally recognised as Azerbaijani territory but occupied by the majority of ethnic Armenians from 1990s to 2020. During that era, Israeli military advisors travelled to Azerbaijan, assisting and modernising its military, as well as providing Israel's newest weapons at a lower price than usual. When Azerbaijan and Armenia fought again in 2020 for Karabakh, this time Azerbaijan wanted to recover, Israeli military hardware was a major breaking point for Azerbaijan to win this war, recovering entire southern Karabakh from the Armenians.

About Iran, Azerbaijan has more religious coincidence: both are majority Shiite Muslim countries. Yet official ties between Azerbaijan and Iran have been hampered by mistrust and fear. Azerbaijan is a secular dictatorship while Iran is a theocracy. In 1990s, Azerbaijan had accused Iran of supporting Armenia, resulting in tensions. News about Iranian terrorists infiltrating Azerbaijan often dragged Azerbaijan into high alert and their anti-Iranian stance has been made favourable for Israel to cooperate. Azerbaijani-Israeli alliance has groomed under such circumstances.

Unfortunately, while Israel remains supportive of Azerbaijan, its bigger brother Turkey doesn't show the same attitude. After the Gaza flotilla incident, in which several Turkish aid workers were killed in an Israeli military raid in 2010, the relations were temporarily suspended before being recovered three years later. It broke again when Israeli intelligence network in Iran was shockingly exposed, which Israel blamed the Turkish regime of behind the reveal, and suspended again until 2016 reconciliation. Yet again, it worsened when Trump signed a decree recognising Jerusalem as the capital of Israel in 2018, leading to the expulsion of ambassadors from each country. This time, Erdoğan showed no intention to revive the damaging tie, further framed Israel as an "apartheid entity" and vowed to "liberate Jerusalem" on his neo-Ottoman quest.

As a result, tensions between Israel and Turkey accumulated into a full-blown diplomatic and political confrontation. After Erdoğan ordered a complete frontal assault on the Kurds in Syria in October 2019, Israel slammed Turkey and announced it would provide aids for the Kurds. When Turkish government stated Israel as a racist state, Israeli officials retaliated by reminding Ankara of its genocide on Armenians, Greeks, Assyrians and Kurds. And then, even when Israel deeply supported Azerbaijan in the September 2020 conflict with Armenia, Erdoğan did not even forgive the Jewish state, blasting Israel as a "destabilising force", alongside the UAE, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Even when the two nations reluctantly restored relations in 2021, both have not appointed new ambassadors and frequent hostilities exist, especially when Israel signed an agreement with Greece and Cyprus to extract gas in the Mediterranean Sea, or Ankara's open prompting of Hamas jihadist fighters.

Azerbaijan's stance has been ambiguous due to the need to preserve relations, but its Turkic connection made Baku increasingly leaned to Ankara, which gave Jerusalem a huge disadvantage. For instance, when Turkish military invaded northern Syria to rout the Kurds, Baku expressed support for Turkey and framed various forces for "backing terrorists", an indirect mention to Israel. Furthermore, Azerbaijan questioned Israel, also indirectly, after Jerusalem allied with Athens and Nicosia dealing against Turkey. Azerbaijan also sided with Turkey after Turkish President Erdoğan slashed France over tensions between Paris and Ankara regarding geopolitical conflicts, while Israel has been a staunch ally of Paris in the issue.

In turn, Mossad chief Yossi Cohen mentioned Azerbaijan for the first time, thought to be back in 2016 but only revealed in 2020, instead of being an ally, now designed as a potential threat because of its alliance with Turkey, on a zoom conversion with Egyptian, Emirati and Saudi counterparts. The director of the world's most feared intelligence agency even revalued Azerbaijan as untrustworthy and sought a plan to contain Azerbaijan so it could be prevented from providing ammunitions to Ankara.

Mossad Director Yossi Cohen.

Further showing how declined Azerbaijan's soft power on Israel, right after Erdoğan smeared Israel despite Jerusalem's unconditional aid for Baku against Armenia in Karabakh, the Israeli government worked to halt supplying weapons to Azerbaijan, and Israeli ambassador in Baku had refused to attend the victory parade after the Karabakh conflict, signalling greater dissatisfaction against Azerbaijan among Israeli political makers.

One thing the Azerbaijanis may dislike from Israel is the absence of Jewish lobby group over the Armenian Genocide. Like Turkey, Azerbaijan does not recognise the Armenian Genocide and has collaborated with Ankara to coerce other countries from recognising, including lethal and economic threats against these nations. The United States, prior to 2019, did not acknowledge the genocide officially, largely because of Jewish lobbying groups defending Turkey and Azerbaijan's stance. Sadly, escalation of tensions between Turkey and Israel regarding Jerusalem and sanctions imposed on Israel by the Turkish AKP regime resulting in the Jewish lobbies in 2019 rebuffed Baku's offer to protect Turkey and Azerbaijan. Without the Israeli shield, Turkish-Azerbaijani lobbies were unable to stop the United States Congress from officially declared the Armenian massacre a genocide. President Joe Biden further seized the ring bell, followed suit in 2021, finalising the United States' position unchanged. Seems to be, from Israeli viewpoint, the Israeli support for Azerbaijan has now ended nothing fruitful for the Jewish nation. Israeli media has also become more Armenia-sympathetic, critical of Ankara and Baku.

Thus, Azerbaijan's refusal to support Israel toward the Gaza conflict is the first response from Baku toward Jerusalem. It is warning Israel to make it carefully or Azerbaijan can switch sides. Given the history of Turkey and Azerbaijan when it comes to foreign relations, the duo has demonstrated its unpredictable natures. As Israeli-Turkish relations continue to fall free, Israel also sees out the hole they're digging the longer they keep up with Azerbaijan. Hence, Israel's normalisation with the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan appeared serving the purposes of distancing from Azerbaijan.

Still, abandoning Azerbaijan perhaps going to be the last choice for the Israeli elites. As much as they started to have a negative opinion of the country, Azerbaijan stands as a partner against Iran, and ignoring will be a problem. Shitloadly, unless Azerbaijan moves out of Ankara's influence, which is very unlikely, Israel and Azerbaijan's relations will be driven into the state of a cold war. Gaza conflict is the only beginning of a slow partway between Azerbaijan and Israel.