Why American recognition of Armenian Genocide can be a threat for Georgia?

The United States officially recognised the Armenian Genocide in 2019, when Congress issued state recognition of the mass atrocities against Armenians by the Ottoman Empire in World War I. The effort was rebuffed by then-President Donald Trump, who has a harmonious relationship with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, but when Trump lost in the 2020 election, Joe Biden officially broke out from the predecessors and finally stated the same on April 24, 2021. Armenians are certainly happy, while Turkish and Azerbaijani nationalists are definitely dissatisfied with what they just saw.

Unfortunately for the United States, the recognition could be a reckless move, since the recognition may have also unravelled how the alliance between the West to Turkey is moving spiral backwards. And this can be even more menacing for Washington D.C. because their recognition of the genocide might leave Turkey to project its ambitions independently and clashing with even NATO, EU and in general Western world, leave alone Turkey's already difficult relations with Russia, China, India and Iran.

And one country that should be taken to account seriously is no other than Georgia.

The South Caucasus country occupies a strategic position, it borders the Black Sea and also has borders with Azerbaijan, Turkey, Armenia and Russia. It should be noticed, that Georgia borders with Turkey and Azerbaijan, two Turkic nations with a strong prejudice against Armenia and Georgia's two important partners on Georgia's quest to integrate within the Western order.

For many decades, Georgia served as a buffer for Russia to preserve its hegemony from the Turks, and successfully used the card of Orthodox Christianity to manipulate the public. But after independence in 1990s, the relationship between Georgia and Russia had been difficult. When two Chechen wars broke out spanning from 1994 and 2000, Georgian government had been pressurised by Moscow to suspend its support for the Chechen separatists, whom many Georgians have sympathy with. Eduard Shevardnadze, the first President of independent Georgia, struggled to take hold of the country as Georgia was dubbed as "mafia capital" in the Caucasus.

Shevardnadze was ousted in 2003 and Mikheil Saakashvili, a controversial populist politician, came to power. Though Shevardnadze was seen by Moscow with scepticism, Saakashvili was far worse, because of Saakashvili's determination to orient the country with NATO and EU. In response, Russia launched a short-lived five-day war attacking Georgia in 2008, occupied Abkhazia and South Ossetia. It was the moment Turkey, then still a liberal Muslim NATO member, declared support for Tbilisi against Russia. Many Georgians held a positive opinion of Turkey, even more than Russia during early 2000s because Turkey itself was an example of how a tolerant Muslim state should be like. After the 2008 war, Georgia and Turkey coordinated to support the fleeing Chechen refugees and Turkey provided ammunitions and weapons for Georgia. Recently, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia also opened the Ceyhan-Tbilisi-Baku pipeline, showing the extension of the cooperation.

Turkey and Azerbaijan have been Georgia's partners and thanks for maintaining good relations, Georgia avoids having tensions with the Turkic duo while having consistent small Turkic minorities, the Turks of Adjara and Azerbaijanis in Kakheti. Further, worth mentioning back the pipeline connecting Turkey to Azerbaijan passed through Georgia, and Turkish government has agreed to renovate Georgian churches across eastern Turkey. Currently, the two countries have free border passing with limited visa restriction. Simultaneously, Georgia also has agreements with Azerbaijan, and both two nations are parts of GUAM (GUAM Organization for Democracy and Economic Development), two others are Ukraine and Moldova. And also the Chechen refugees, both Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkey share similar issues. Georgia also desperately relies on Turkey and Azerbaijan to reduce trade deficit with Russia.

As for the result, Georgia largely distanced itself from Armenia, possibly because of Armenia's close relations with Russia, though Georgia doesn't alienate Armenia, its policies have been in line with Turkey and Azerbaijan. Even when Turkey became increasingly autocratic by repressing political freedom and human rights, Georgian government has downplayed the severity to avoid repercussions. For example, when accusations about Turkish nationalists flaring up demand to take over the territory of Adjara, a region where Georgian Turks were once majority live, Georgian government distributed it as Russian propaganda. Georgian government has also maintained a strictly neutral stance when it comes to Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, even when emotionally they were willing to side with Azerbaijan more.

The recognition of Armenian Genocide by President Biden could spurn the development. The Turkish government has long suspected Western allies of trying to undermine Turkish determination and given Georgia being a Christian country, Turkey is unlikely to tolerate Georgia. If anything to remember, let's not forget the Turkish invasion of Cyprus in 1974, when the power balance in the island was leaning to the Greeks at the expense of the Turks. Despite America offered negotiations to solve the problems due to both countries are NATO members, Ankara rebuffed. The island remains divided even today and a symbol of Turko-Greek friction. Under the AKP dictatorship, Turkish military has frequently invaded and attacked Kurdish fighters in Iraq and Syria despite warning about ISIL resurgence and American pressure. In 2020, Turkey's relationship with the United States suffered further downhill after Ankara sent jihadists from Syria to fight alongside the eventual victorious Azerbaijani military in Karabakh conflict with Armenian separatist force - in response, Ankara blamed Washington D.C. of sending weapons for Armenia, which was denied due to Armenia not being a NATO member, yet leading to sanctions unveiled against Turkey. Turkey's frictions also go against Australia, New Zealand and even fellows NATO and EU, with widespread disrespectful manners, threats issued and verbal assaults. Turkey even alienates Israel, an important buddy of the U.S., by inflaming conflicts over Palestine and Israeli-Greek alliance. Not to say rising hostilities between Turkey to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE and Bahrain, temporarily comes to a halt.

But Erdoğan always has supporters, and still. The Chechens, for example, while living in peace with Georgians, are majority Sunni Muslims thus their affinity with Turkey is relevant, maybe more than with Georgia. Sunni fundamentalists, strong in Djibouti, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Somalia and Bosnia, also regarded the Turkish President as the legitimate heir of Ummah. He is also popular in some parts of the Turkic world, notably Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan.

Turkey may not take actions quickly, but the Machiavellian and xenophobic nature of Turkey appear less changed. No matter the current economic crisis and disruption of money flow that tremble Turkey, Erdoğan has shown how fierce he could go. Definitely enough, the Turkish dictator will soon turn his eyes into America's allies, and like how it did to Greece and Kurds, it would provoke fights, only this time Azerbaijan shall join the cohort.

It's no secret that the Turkish government has been looking at Georgia and other Western states since April 24. It may stir up separatist movements among the Turkic minorities in Kakheti and Adjara. It can also call for Chechens to riot against Georgia. Let's remember even when Erdoğan may not like Russia, the Turkish leader also shows he can work with the Kremlin to bear fruit for his own. He has since reopened the secret link with Abkhazian authorities.

The ball is on the feet of Georgia, but unclear how long would it last. Georgia is not Israel in the case of Armenia and can't always play a quasi-standard explanation. Georgia is also not Poland when dealing with a very aggressive Turkey. So if Georgia can't balance between an increasingly imperialistic Turkey and the United States, Georgia can be the victim of Ankara's neo-Ottomanist ideology.