2022 FIFA World Cup qualification in Asia - what to wait in the final twelve?
The campaign for the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Asia has come to a close. And I mean here is, a bit close enough to place some challenge.
The final twelve was full of many dramas and, in some aspects, shocking absentees. This fell to three countries, Uzbekistan, Jordan and Thailand, both missed out the final phase, with the Uzbeks suffered a destructive defeat away to Saudi Arabia that confirmed the country being unable to reach the 2022 FIFA World Cup final phase for the first time ever. On the other hand, Jordan and Thailand rarely appear in this phase, but previous performances meant it was also full of disbelief, too. Thailand beat the UAE but failed to overcome Malaysia and Vietnam proved to be a game-changer. Jordan used to play the final round only one: in 2014 qualifiers, yet this qualification was so impressive that Jordan even almost reached the World Cup, only to be knocked out by a formidable Uruguay led by Edinson Cavani, Diego Forlán and Luis Suárez in the intercontinental playoffs.
Of course, there are some other absentees, such as Kuwait (who played its only World Cup in 1982), Bahrain (twice play-off loser), North Korea (withdrew) and Qatar (already host nation, not entering the third round).
Judging by the Pots, I think it is clear to make some draw about what would happen in the eventual final round of the qualification.
Pot 1: the most powerful but not always free of vulnerability
This pot composed of Iran and Japan, two elite nations within the AFC. They surely deserved the qualities both teams have. Iran is quite strong, fast and physical, very much suited to the European quota. Japan is also very powerful indeed - they are a very disciplined team and impressed by their combination of individual skills to teamwork ethics. Japan reflects in some aspect of a German side while Iran reflects a more French side.
Iran and Japan are big. Really, really big, by the standard of Asian football. There are many famed Iranian and Japanese stars abroad. With Iran, we see Sardar Azmoun, Alireza Jahanbakhsh, Alireza Beiranvand and Mehdi Taremi, just short; Japan is no inferior, we can also name Shinji Kagawa, Genki Haraguchi, Takumi Minamino, Shinji Okazaki, Takefusa Kubo and Yuya Osako, to be fair. I think if you compose a team of 11 players from only two countries, they are still too much for the rest of Asia.
But that doesn't mean they have no weak points. For Iran, the overwhelmingly muscular players leave little space for skilful displays of its, thus limited visions of Iranian markers. Against Iraq and Bahrain, they unveiled this weakness - once Iraq and Bahrain blocked some of Iran's most important players like Azmoun and Taremi, Iran collapsed. Japan, well, they have a harder time maintaining the defence against teams that prefer to play guerrilla-style football, which often confuses Japanese players. Back in 2018 qualification, Japan suffered a shock home loss to the UAE in its opening account largely because of the Emiratis' constant harassment and tricky football grab it imposed to limit Japan's duel football.
Pot 2: only below Pot 1 with a small distance, still too much for the rest
Australia and South Korea are teams in Pot 2, but given their status, they're no different from Japan and Iran. Not so much.
Australia and South Korea are teams that strongly based on physical conditions, which is both teams' main advantage. Both countries possess some of the tallest and most muscular players in Asia, similar to Iran. By far, these teams tend to play dual football, giving pressure to retake the ball. South Korea and Australia can't be defeated if you try to play dual football with them - they'll always win no matter how you try.
However, their physical prowess also made them exposed to a similar issue like Iran - lacking important skilled marksmen. They have many major football stars: Lee Kang-in, Son Heung-min, Lee Seung-woo, Hwang Hee-chan, Hwang Ui-jo (South Korea); Awer Mabil, Aaron Mooy, Harry Souttar, Martin Boyle, Jamie Maclaren (Australia). But only a few can have its magic. When facing teams that tend to be highly disciplined, manipulative and defensive, it can cause both teams difficulties. The 2014 and 2018 World Cup qualifiers that saw both teams struggled to qualify, examine this well. The way how Qatar and the UAE overcame both sides in the 2019 AFC Asian Cup appeared to be fresh lessons.
Pot 3: not far from the first two, still powerful, but can be reckless
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are indeed not to be forgotten. In Pot 3 gave these teams the potential. Yet, only one is really competitive - Saudi Arabia, which shared the World Cup record with Iran (5). The UAE, so far, has yet to return to the big stage since its debut in 1990. Definitely, Iran, Japan, Australia and South Korea will try not to be dragged with Saudi Arabia since the Saudis are always paranoid.
Saudi Arabia maintains a high-quality national side even though none of them plays abroad - this can be explained by the low standard of Asian football by the majority, as well as Saudi wealth that brought many major football stars and coaches to play in Saudi League. Some of the Saudi faces are Fahad Al-Muwallad, Yasser Al-Shahrani, Abdullah Al-Hamdan, Firas Al-Buraikan and Abdulrahman Ghareeb. In the UAE, the same happens, but the UAE appears to handle it poorly. This is due to the Emiratis could not sustain their players to maintain the form in necessary moments. Of course, the UAE does have some lightning names: Omar Abdulrahman, known as UAE's Messi; Ali Mabkhout, the top scorer of the Emiratis; Ali Saleh, a rising young talent of Scottish descent. The UAE is trying to empower its position and to regain their lost status by bringing a number of South Americans into the rank.
But, as teams from Pot 3, they're not always safe though. Emotional issues are always the biggest concern for Arab teams from West Asia, UAE and Saudi Arabia included. These teams tend to play by feelings rather than by the formula, a bit thanks for the inconsistent coaching position as well as the lack of a singular style. Without a clear formula, these teams can be easily torn apart.
Pot 4: threatening, but questionable
China is the world's most populous country while Iraq is one of the most football-mad countries. Coincidentally, Iraq and China have to share this pot. Both nations have only one World Cup to remember: Iraq in 1986 and China in 2002. Definitely, the World Cup thirst for Iraq is far prolonged than China. Still, both want to end this drought.
Iraq has been blessed with many talented and skilled masterminds. For once, Iraq produced players like Ahmed Radhi who reckoned the 1986 World Cup qualification and scored Iraq's only World Cup in their 1-2 defeat to Belgium. Then go Nashar Akram with his magic feet and Younis Mahmoud with powerful headers that deliver Iraq's only international honour in the 2007 AFC Asian Cup. Yet, Iraq has suffered from constant political conflicts and interference that undermine Iraq's football development. China is no better. For once, China does have football stars like Fan Zhiyi who left his mark at Crystal Palace, Sun Jihai making fame with Manchester City and Hao Haidong with his powerful display of goal scoring - they both helped China to qualify for its only World Cup in 2002 and came close to win the Asian Cup in 2004. China doesn't have wars like Iraq, but because of the government's corruption, nepotism and mismanagement - especially under President Xi Jinping, a mad football fan, China has declined and lost its once relevance. Today, despite these teams' profiles, they're just shadows of their pasts.
Iraq and China still have major names. Iraq has Ali Adnan and Mohanad Ali as key players; while China is carried by Espanyol-based Wu Lei. But they will need a lot of luck and a long process to return to the World Cup.
Pot 5: on the weak side, but unpredictable
The two teams in this near-bottom pot are Syria and Oman - none have ever been to the big stage. With Syria, it is just their second appearance in this phase, after the previous one where Syria left a deep impression of its brave performance. While Oman, it is their third appearance in this round, but Oman has not even reached the playoffs. Therefore, the desire to progress is big in both teams.
Oman used to have a famous player in the English Premier League - Ali Al-Habsi, the retired goalkeeper of Wigan. Meanwhile, Syria has the talented Kevork Mardikian, once considered the best Syrian player; or the recent veteran Firas Al-Khatib. But they're just lone comets, unable to impact the whole structure.
If Syria and Oman ever want to make their debuts, they must be realistic about the chance they have. Maybe Syria and Oman are now having greater players, such as Syria's Omar Al Somah, Mardik Mardikian and Omar Kharbin; to Oman's Abdulaziz Al-Muqbali and Muhsen Al-Ghassani - but changes of managerial positions will make these teams unlikely to burst. Both Syria and Oman had sacked coaches in the middle of the second round, following overhauls of these teams' organisations. Most currently, Syria fired Tunisian manager Nabil Maâloul due to a salary dispute.
The teams have power and energy, but if they can't be stable, then they can't go to World Cup in this inconsistent way.
Pot 6: the weakest, but unwilling to bow down
This Pot incorporates two surprises of the second round: Vietnam and Lebanon. For Lebanon, it is their second appearance in this phase after the 2014 qualification. For Vietnam, it will be their debut at this phase.
The way Vietnam and Lebanon qualified was different: Vietnam built enough points and progressed thanks to an Australian victory over Jordan. Meanwhile, Lebanon fell to South Korea and had to wait, ultimately the qualification got them the luck with Saudi Arabia gave Lebanon the needed victory over Uzbekistan. But the way the two countries develop their football is different: Vietnam embraced developing a system that encompasses youth football from the age of just 10; to constant refusal to call up naturalised or half-Vietnamese players into the team (so far, only two Vietnamese abroad got called into the team, one is now integral on the national squad). With Lebanon, the country cannot build the same structured system but benefitted from the large diaspora of ethnic Lebanese players to represent the team. These nations do have some achievements: Lebanon's Al Ahed was the first club to win an AFC competition, while the U-20 Vietnam qualified for the 2017 U-20 World Cup and the same group that almost win the 2018 AFC U-23 Championship in China.
Unfortunately, this round could be too much. Neither Vietnam nor Lebanon represents any serious challenges and can be seen as basket points. Not just to say none of them has any major football stars to remember. For Lebanon, their captain Hassan Maatouk is the only player to gain fame. For Vietnam, it is Nguyễn Công Phượng and Nguyễn Quang Hải. And this is not youth or club football.
Saying these disadvantages doesn't mean these nations have no chance. Vietnam and Lebanon can still fight for a World Cup spot if these teams calculate in the right ways to prepare, though to be frank, their only chances would be a third-place finish in respective groups for a playoff showdown, even when it is too problematic.
Conclusion
As usual, due to Asia's football hierarchy, it is no secret that team in Pot 1, 2, 3 and sometimes 4 will have the majority of opportunities. Teams from Pot 5 and 6 are more likely to culminate explosions, but it'll greatly depend.
To Pot 5 and 6: Syria has been regarded with cautious by the rest after the Syrians stunned the qualifiers last four years ago. To be precisely, Syria's elements of surprise have lost, also their poor form in 2019 Asian Cup also raised concerns of a repeat. On the other hand, Oman's impressive form back in 2019 AFC Asian Cup has also allowed various teams to take close eyes. Lebanon and Vietnam may have more to cover, but more interests will turn to Vietnam due to its rising young talents that reached the last eight in the 2019 Asian Cup as well as its good discipline. Lebanon appears to be more experienced toward South Korea, where the Lebanese faced in all two recent qualifiers, but not sure if South Korea not to be drawn with Lebanon in the same group in the upcoming 1 July draw.
To Pot 1 to 4: these teams from these Pots are no doubt, will not give up until they can get the World Cup ticket. Still, only Japan appears to be the most stable.
South Korea is not really okay, actually, seeing how South Korea struggled only to qualify for World Cup by their final matches. Australia's form is even far worse, when the Socceroos only made to Russia 2018 thanked to playoff victory over Honduras, a decline from its 2014 qualification when Australia finished second to progress. Australia and South Korea therefore, are reshuffling their squads, managerial system, player developments and tactics to restore its position among Asia's Titans. Iran, meanwhile, appears to have weaknesses following its difficult campaign to escape the second round, while manager Dragan Skočić had temporarily fixed Iranian team, how will he go for long-term remain uncertain. Saudi Arabia's inconsistent style was seen in 2014 and 2018 qualifications, Saudi Arabia was knocked down by Oman and Australia in 2014 but finished ahead Australia in 2018 to reach Russia as one of the four first. This unstable demonstrations of the Saudis can be very problematic once they are for 2022 World Cup run in neighbour Qatar.
The UAE, China and Iraq - teams that only have one World Cup, can't spare times. The United Arab Emirates and China are trying to make comebacks, by naturalising a number of players and spending billions of dollars building football facilities. Iraq on the other hand, has kept nurturing plenty of young talents all by themselves despite the hardship at home, and this generation of the Iraqi side has been regarded as one of the greatest and boasting the brightest prospect since the 1980 generation. Still, only with naturalised players and political interference can't enable them to reach a new height - which is something they must overcome.
In the end, games belong to teams from Pot 1 to 4, but rule out Pot 5 and 6 is a bit ridiculous.
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