A point of no return - the Chinese scramble for another World Cup appearance

When the world's most populous nation beat Syria 3-1 in Sharjah, it ensured one thing: China will not be eliminated from the contention. Yes, for Syria, this defeat was a meh word - Syria has already qualified to the same phase, and changed some players. But China, this win was worth paying, at least, for a short period.

Yet we talk about China, we have to admit this: their qualification was not as easy as they thought. China was drawn in a fairly easy group, maybe even easier than Australia, South Korea, Saudi Arabia and Iran's, when FIFA President Infantino issued for the 2022 FIFA World Cup. At least on paper only. The Chinese Dragons were also led by the experienced World Cup winner, Marcello Lippi.

By the time the draw was made, 17 July 2019, the situation was changing rapidly. Syria was already under crisis after its humiliating group stage ousting in the 2019 AFC Asian Cup. The three others weren't China's opponents either; the Philippines did qualify for the same tournament as China and Syria, but the Pinoys were not renowned football supporters. Guam and the Maldives are too weak to do something. Yet nobody could imagine out that China could only qualify after eight matches, with the final fixture being its lifeline. Two of these games, important ones against the Philippines and Syria, both in the first leg, ended disastrously for China when the team won only one point out of the necessary six.

Something has gone wrong with China throughout its campaign: it was supposed to be an easy test, especially when China has begun to naturalise a number of Chinese diaspora players, as well as Brazilians like Elkeson, Fernandinho and Alan. Despite several objections over the quality of its own native players to be holed by the rapid naturalisation, the Chinese FA kept the business on the way. And stunningly, China was held goalless in Bacolod to the Philippines, where the Filipinos, including several Filipino diaspora players, demonstrated a brave performance. Then, with the same resources, China was beaten, again, by Syria, 2-1, with courtesy from Zhang Linpeng's own goal. The Syrians did even better - they locked Elkeson and isolated Wu Lei. Lippi resigned in disgust, and his assistant Li Tie took the realm, where he achieved their returning victories over Syria and the Philippines to qualify for the third round.

China is a more experienced country in this final phase of the World Cup qualifiers in Asia when the country readmitted itself to FIFA in the 1970s. Yet despite these vast experiences, China could only get a successful World Cup appearance once - in 2002. During that time, China assembled a dream team, consisting of striker Hao Haidong, playmakers Sun Jihai, Fan Zhiyi and Shao Jiayi. Its appearance on the big stage was even hailed by Brazilian legend, Pelé.

Since Xi Jinping became President of China, the Chinese leader has shown a great deal on football. He underlined three missions: China must host the World Cup, must qualify for it, and must win it, by 2050. Beijing spent billions to push the other Chinese clubs to build grand football infrastructures, including the world's largest academy based in Guangzhou. Chinese football fortunes increased as well - its clubs became some of the richest, its teams like Guangzhou Evergrande (now Guangzhou F.C.), Beijing Guoan, Shanghai SIPG (now Shanghai Port) or Shanghai Shenhua repeatedly broke transfer records, raising alarms to even the great French manager Arsène Wenger. Guangzhou F.C. has won two AFC Champions League titles, a fair amount to speak out.

Note that the successes of Chinese clubs and the flood of foreign footballers at their height, however, didn't transcend into the national side. Still not now. China failed miserably in the 2014 qualifiers, losing in shock to Iraq and Jordan. The Chinese did better in the next qualifier, but not enough. The national team of China, or Team Dragon, had replaced three different managers for the process, but positive results came too little, too late. Also, during this qualification, China suffered two inglorious losses, a 0-2 away to Uzbekistan and most importantly, the disbelieving 0-1 loss right in Xi'an to Syria. The defeat to Syria was too costly to a point that it caused riots in China, demanding the President of CFA, Cai Zhenhua, to resign. Marcello Lippi's arrival salvaged some pride, but too little, too late.

Then, the COVID-19 pandemic arrived, first from China, then spread to the world. Notice that despite China earned praise for its effective response to COVID-19, it came with a burdening cost on football: many Chinese football clubs went to bankruptcy, dissolving activities and players released without receiving payments. The sudden shock that hit Chinese football was so unexpected and heavy, which didn't exist in even far more worst-hit nations in Europe, stunned the Chinese. Only by the end of 2020 that the Chinese FA passed a new law, forbidding clubs from carrying names of their sponsors and coercing these teams into self-sufficient instead of reliance on their sponsors. Yet, these clubs, due to lavish fundings, lack the ethics of control, and the money continued to flow, causing free fall.

The damage was even more severe due to the lack of interest in developing youth players. The recent 2021 AFC Champions League exposed this: most Chinese clubs brought with them squads full of native players with no understanding about general football. One club, Shanghai Port, suffered a shocking loss to Philippine's Kaya FC in the qualification, while Guangzhou FC and Beijing Guoan were at the bottom of their groups with no chance to progress. Meanwhile, clubs from Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Thailand spent even less money than those of China's. Guangzhou FC was twice the winners of the Asian Champions League, to say for all.

Chinese football is now under a string of crises it's never tasted before. So much that this time, China has to give citizenships to a number of players from Brazil and Europe, some have Chinese origin, at least under FIFA regulations, to cut short its struggle. Yet the way how China let Syria thumping them down or how China could not defeat the Philippines definitely signal their opponents in the last round - that China is not scary even when they have foreigners in the team.

For Team Dragons, the risk is very high if their naturalised footballers don't perform at the expected level. Japan, Australia and Saudi Arabia have voiced concerns about China's attempt to make starting eleven full of naturalised ones; but they also remind that these players, despite the quality, don't seem to build so much strength for China outside making fame, and that will not be a problem. Oman and Vietnam are warier about this for sure, but with Syria winning against that China before, they could seek inspiration.

And there is another problem: Chinese nationalism. China was drawn with Japan and Australia. And these two nations are having clashes with China.

Australia and China's relationship is sinking into the worst in history after Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison called for an independent inquiry over the COVID-19 pandemic, which China rebuffed and imposed tariffs on Australian products, as well as arresting various Australian nationals (notably Cheng Lei) as part of China's hostage diplomacy. As the result, boycotts against China has risen in Australia as many Australians believe China intentionally created the pandemic to benefit itself as the world is suffering. Australia also terminated a contract about the Belt and Road Initiative signed by the State of Victoria before; and limits exports to China.

Japan is having a hostile relationship with China due to disputes related to Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands. Internationally recognised as part of Japan, but China lays claim based on history and the legacies of WWII. Japan, on the other hand, insisted that it would settle the issues not with mainland China (PRC) but rather Taiwan (Republic of China). And then, the war crimes committed by the Japanese army in China during WWII always fuels nationalist sentiment here. Like Australia, Japan is part of the QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue), alongside the U.S. and India.

And not ignoring Vietnam, another opponent. Previously, when it came to football, Vietnam was inferior and tended to accept being defeated early. But while Chinese football stagnated, Vietnamese football began to witness its rise. Though not until 2018 that Vietnam represented to Asian football a new generation that was dubbed as the country's greatest. Historically, outside football, Sino-Vietnamese relations are tense - there were plenty of wars between the two nations, the last being 1979; the issue about the Chinese oil drill back in 2014 sparked a wave of anti-Chinese unrest in Vietnam. And when China going to face Vietnam this time, the first fixture held in China will come at the end of the holiday that celebrates the proclamation of the PRC in 1949, 7 October 2021. Then, the returning encounter will play in Hanoi on 1 February 2022, coincided with Lunar New Year, a traditional East Asian holiday using the lunisolar calendar - to which Vietnam and China both belong.

Chinese media really hyped these fixtures - and turned it seriously as the country's most nationalist media outlets call for destroying their opponents and taking second place - which guarantees a place in Qatar. Most Chinese media dismissed Australia and Vietnam, as well as Saudi Arabia and Oman - as their serious opponents; instead, China looks at Japan as the only major challenge.

But once China can't control its population's nationalist mindset, it can become a grave disaster for China. Brazil 1-7 defeat to Germany back in 2014 was due to overconfident and arrogance that had taken root in Brazil when it hosted the World Cup. If China decides to play this nationalism, it can pay dearly. Not to mention the players of foreign origins, when they don't show the forms Chinese expect from them, it can make them scapegoats, fall from heaven. What happened to Gao Hongbo back in the 2018 qualifiers, or Camacho after the 1-5 loss to Thailand, answer everything.

So there are plenty of problems rather than goods: an over-aged squad, a toxic nationalism, and the unwillingness to become competitive by itself - it is all coming to China. While it is no secret that China can fight for a World Cup place, the winners tend to be the teams that keep cool longest, something China doesn't have.

For sure, China senses the vulnerabilities of other teams - but so are her opponents. This will be a long, rocky road. This qualification will be the point of no return - if China loses the race, it'll be the end to what would be the last faces of some of China's most recognised faces, like Wu Lei, of course.