For Iran and China, the upcoming 2022 FIFA World Cup qualification is far more political than just football

2022 FIFA World Cup qualification in Asia is only a few weeks away before the final showdown. Out of 47 Asian states, only the last 12 nations will be there. Yet, the upcoming 2022 FIFA World Cup qualification may be even more to see, not just because of football, but also outside elements. These issues are more relevant in two nations, which, ironically, have to play in two different yet familiar groups: Iran and China.

With the announcement of Iran in group A and, earlier, China in group B, of the last phase of qualification, it would have been fine for someone who doesn't pay attention to football, or soccer if you are North Americans. Yet the draws have put Iran and China into two trajectory groups that will, instead, unite them with their increasingly heated enemies of the past. This made the sentiment increasingly uneasy yet necessary to speak out.

Iran

We start with group A, where Iran, the second-highest ranked team in Asia, will battle South Korea, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and the United Arab Emirates. The draw comes, however, amidst the increasing anti-Iranian sentiment in many of these countries, in particular the Arab World. Since 2019, anti-Iranian protests have erupted in both Iraq and Lebanon, where the protesters accused the Iranian regime of interference, meddling and mismanagement.

An anti-government protest in Iraq during 2019-20.

Of course, the Iraqi and Lebanese protesters are together resenting American and Iranian involvement, but while the United States may be eager to understand why protesters are demanding the U.S. to quit, Iran isn't. Iran's economic lifeline, given sanctions imposed on the country, is by far benefiting from the mismanagement of their puppet governments in Iraq and Lebanon. The Lebanese economy has seen its pound plundered behind dollars over 80%, resulting in widespread hyperinflation; food, ammunition and even fuel are scarce, electricity is cut 12 hours/day, garbage is everywhere in the streets, etc. The chiefdom system of the Lebanese government is so corrupt to a point that it could not even investigate who was behind the devastating Beirut explosion in August last year. The same misery in Iraq, where the people could barely get enough electricity for 12 hours, rising fuel price, lack of water sanitation.

When asked about the widespread protests, Iran blamed the West for the unrest, insisting that Iraq and Lebanon are "fine" with Iran's guidance. Yet the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, when asked where would Iran stand amidst the protests, had shamelessly claimed Iran would stand with the people. This open lie and contradiction on the statement of the Iranian government have only further spiked anti-Iranian fervour, during the second round of the 2022 FIFA World Cup qualifiers, Iraqi fans gathered for the rivalry on 14 November 2019 to watch with grief and deepening Iranophobia. Iraq won this game 2-1 despite playing in Jordan, and public celebration was boosted among Iraqis when Iran lost. The Iraqi celebration came even bigger in early January 2020, when Qasem Soleimani, the chief architect of Iran's expansion in the Middle East, was killed by an American drone, in Baghdad.

Lebanon didn't face Iran in the second round. However, Lebanon had used to play Iran back in the 2014 WC qualification. Lebanon didn't progress to the World Cup like Iran, yet Lebanon inflicted one of only Iran's two defeats in the campaign. Iran didn't even concede a goal from Lebanon until the 2014 qualifiers, but Roda Antar's first-ever goal against Iran would end Iran's undefeated streak to 13 among 20,000 spectators in Beirut. But that was when Iran was not yet being perceived as a tyrant. Now, they would reunite, but the feeling has changed, as Iranophobia and anti-Hezbollah have increasingly ingrained within the Lebanese public.

An anti-Hezbollah protest in Beirut, early 2021.

We all know Hezbollah, a Shiite militant group, is armed to teeth by Iran, and by far the only one to refuse to disarm for a stable Lebanon when the civil war ended - instead, they became a state within the state. They became the richest and well-funded group in Lebanon, largely due to their stance against Israel. However, when Hezbollah revealed its real image: to protect Iran's projects rather than fighting for Arab solidarity against Israel since the 2010s, Hezbollah's image has quietly been tarnished. Not until 2019 that, finally Iran started to be aware of how grave the situation in Lebanon is. Because ignorance is the rule, Iran ignored all the pleas from Lebanese people to leave the country in peace, rather than trying to cultivate good in greed, best seen when Iran confirmed it will transport oil, not to save Lebanese people, but for Hezbollah. Eventually, when Lebanon and Iran were drawn in the same group, there have been widespread calls among the Lebanese public to treat Iran as an enemy state, and the Iranian national team should be considered a tool of Iranian propaganda.

The other Arab nation Iran is having tensions against, the UAE, is more unique. The UAE is an Arab federal monarchy in the Persian Gulf. Unlike Iraq and Lebanon, the UAE is far more stable and economically self-sufficient. The UAE also has a big backer: Saudi Arabia. The UAE has historically maintained a sceptical relationship with Iran, dislikes its government but doesn't cut ties, best seen when the UAE, despite condemning Iran for failing to defend the Saudi embassy in 2016 unrest, doesn't recall ambassador unlike Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Qatar. It worsened when the UAE signed a normalisation treaty with Israel in 2020. Subsequently, the Iranian government threatened wars against the UAE, forcing the Emirates to reduce its military activities in Yemen. Iran was also accused of hijacking a UAE-backed oil tanker.

That was enough for the UAE to feel that it should never trust Iran. Further frameworks of cooperation between the UAE with Israel and Saudi Arabia only revealed deep dissatisfaction against Iran. This World Cup qualification, thus, is a good chance for the UAE to show they are independent and not afraid of Iran.

Hence, Iran could only play against two nations that were deemed to be friendly in this group: Syria, which is backed by a Shiite-based family despite its common Arab heritage, whose reign is characterised with full brutality to preserve power amidst economic collapse after 10 year-war; the other is South Korea, which is too far away from the flame of Middle East and has no interest to intervene.

Out of three Arab nations that witnessed rising anti-Iranian sentiment, Lebanon appears to be the weakest and unlikely to provide any challenges; but Iraq and the UAE are definitely more challenging. Iraq and the UAE have frequent histories of participating in major football tournaments and vast experience in playing Iran. Combined with the nationalist clouds rising in these nations when coming to Iran, these fixtures won't be easy for the Iranians. Iraq has provided a great example of how to overcome a talented, but unstable Iran, and Iraq is not hesitant in repeating it. The UAE can also learn from Bahrain's 1-0 win over Iran in the same qualification (though Bahrain would not qualify).

As written: Iranian gain in the Middle East is a hollow one, which led to an even more catastrophic outcome for the populace in the Iranian zone of influence, where every Iran's allies are impoverished. Subsequently, Iran's delusional dream of creating an "Axis of Resistance", has now turned into an "Axis of Iranian tyranny", replacing a tyrant with a different tyrant. Yet the Iranian clergy continues to pretend it has never happened, thus further enhanced the view that Iran must be defeated at all costs - the upcoming 2022 FIFA World Cup qualification can be very political for Iran.

China

When looking at group B, China has their opponents: Saudi Arabia, Australia, Vietnam, Oman and Japan. Like Iran, China has also embraced an empire-building project, on an even larger scale than that of Iran due to its historical status.

China's aggressive behaviours come in every front, regardless. Even sports aren't an exception. China wants to be acknowledged as a leader, a hungry, warring leader who never fails to surprise with its open imperialistic attitude. Recently, the Chinese government's media has blasted two Taiwanese badminton players when China's duo lost the final in the 2020 Summer Olympics, followed by a bunch of Chinese trolls claiming Taiwan is an enemy, not a friend for China.

However, Taiwan will not be in the third round with China, as the country was eliminated in the second round with eight losses. Instead, China has a bunch of problems with Australia, Japan and Vietnam - all stemmed from historical and recent tensions.

China's relations with Japan are not easy and have been frequently impacted by anti-Japanese sentiment, rooted in China's defeat during the Qing-Japan War. It was superseded with the second war started in 1937, coincided with the eventual outbreak of WWII. Today, the issues of wars with Japan have always played a major role in the turbulent Sino-Japanese ties. When Japan nationalised Senkaku Islands, disputed by China as Diaoyu, unrest broke out in 2012 with tacit support from Beijing.

Anti-Japanese protests in China, 2012.

Subsequently, Japan and China remain belligerent in many problems regarding WWII atrocities, notably the Nanking Massacre, or territorial disputes. When Japan was drawn with China in the 2022 qualifiers, Chinese media stirred up the flame of the past as a way to demonstrate nationalist sentiment.

China's hostilities against Australia is basically a recent phenomenon, but this was grappled when Australia's Prime Minister Scott Morrison, in an unpredicted move, called for an investigation of COVID-19 origin. China has reacted harshly and imposed trade bans, restrictions and even advised Chinese nationals to be "aware" of Australia's racism. Recently, Chinese media published a post condemning Australian troops "mass murder" in Afghanistan, despite Canberra's attempt to explain the photo. This further worsens the perception of China in Australia, and the country has retaliated: Australia walked out from China's One Belt, One Road; exposing China's espionages; increased ties with countries that have hostile relations with China like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and India; to begin diversifying its economy to slowly stop relying on the Chinese market.

But while China's tensions with Japan and Australia have dominated most of Beijing's modern political agenda, one country has shown a big middle finger against China: Vietnam. Though the two countries are ruled by similar autocratic communist governments, these nations have struggled to fully get along. Many Vietnamese have long memories of China's oppression of Vietnam, though at the same time cherished some aspects China imported to Vietnam, notably Lunar New Year.

Wars with China have a profound influence on Vietnamese mentality.

This is no better than the violent anti-Chinese riots in 2014 when Chinese companies in Vietnam were attacked, looted and Chinese nationals faced racist statements from the Vietnamese public. Vietnam and China have clashed in the South China Sea, in particular in recent years. In 2018, unrest broke out again in Vietnam when the government sought to implement the 99-year lease in the city of Quang Ninh for an unspecific investor, thought to be China, in a plan called "Special Economic Zone".

The Vietnamese regime is fully aware of its credibility under fire due to its sluggish vaccination program during the COVID-19 pandemic and has tried to buy some vaccines from China in order to boost the public vaccination rate. But public opinion among Vietnamese toward China's Sinovac and Sinopharm is overwhelmingly negative, due to Chinese vaccines' low quality. Many Vietnamese still prefer vaccines from Britain, the United States or at least made in India, Japan and South Korea, the latter has a special status due to football connection.

At least, having Australia, Vietnam and Japan in the same group for 2022 WC qualifiers allowed Chinese nationals to become furious at best. Chinese media didn't underestimate anyone, but noted that China "shall qualify". Its attitude represents the best of Chinese views.

Chinese media has mocked Australia as the country doesn't produce any major international players in Europe's top 5 leagues like 20 years ago anymore, apart from Mathew Ryan, and that Chinese nationalists claimed they would even smash this "weakened, tiny" Australia. Chinese media even provided the concerns from Graham Arnold, current Socceroos' boss, that Australia was forced to play its first home game away from his country due to FFA and Canberra's failure to implement "bubble travel", as evidence of Australia's looming disadvantages getting burst. The same media that made a clear portrayal of Vietnam as "tiny" team, does have improvements but will end up losing all home-and-away to China, that Vietnamese players are not just only short but less competitive to the buff, tall Chinese players. Let's note that fixtures against Vietnam for China, both, are special: the first game will be played on the last day of the Holiday week that celebrated the foundation of PRC; the second will be played on Lunar New Year's Eve next year.

Even when it comes to Japan, Chinese portrayal is not really brighter. Though it is certain that Chinese media gets more space to respect Japan than the one they gave to Australia and Vietnam due to Japan's football prowess, Chinese media still believes that China must accumulate four points from Japan, so that China can return to the World Cup as a prideful, fearless team. The only two countries Chinese press does make honest examination in this group are Saudi Arabia and Oman - just like South Korea in group A, Saudi Arabia and Oman are too far away from the affairs of East Asia. Could also add that Riyadh and Muscat supported China in Xinjiang's Uyghur affair.

Judging that media in China is under the command of the Communist Party, we can easily predict how China truly views her upcoming opponents. Nationalism has driven China's mad view on their rivals to a point it is no doubt that China openly segregates three out of five. Fueled by pride and disgust when seeing how Australia, Japan and Vietnam view China currently, this shaped the opinions from Chinese mainland. By using political view to infiltrate sports, China has turned fixtures against Japan, Vietnam and Australia, to become political.

A conclusion

We have seen how Iran and China behaved when it comes to the FIFA World Cup qualification this time, and we can frankly realise that this kind of opinion will not bring any greatness for these countries when going to the upcoming campaign.

It's essential to maintain a cold head before a sporting event, as it should be. Rather, Iran and China, by how they demonstrate, unwittingly drive these affairs into footballing scheme with their openly toxic stances. This, in some way, can prove to be detrimental for the duo in case of their World Cup dreams fail to materialise.

For all other teams before facing Iran and China, especially those countries above on the list, it is necessary to keep their cool if you want to win. Wait for these countries to burst themselves by arrogance, and the chances to win will grow. People can think about these historical rivalries if they want, but a war could only win with a cool attitude.