A short preview on the 2022 FIFA World Cup qualification third round in Asia – Matchday 3
The two first matchdays in September so far have ended with a number of surprise as a conclusion. It's no secret that this World Cup qualification is pretty unpredictable in Asia. October 7th will see the actions back as the remaining 12 nations scramble for four direct spots to Qatar. Change is likely to continue.
Group A
South Korea vs Syria
This will be the second consecutive World Cup qualifiers that the two nations face each other, having already battled twice on the run to Russia. Back in the previous qualifying round, South Korea prevailed 1-0 on aggregate. Being the hosts of this fixture makes sense for the Koreans who are willing to repeat the same performance, maybe better, the head-to-head result also indicates a clear favourite toward South Korea, with the Taegeuk Tigers' only defeat to Syria came in 1984 AFC Asian Cup.
However, South Korea will have to struggle to find out how to maximise the home advantage. Two difficult results (0-0 to Iraq and 1-0 win to Lebanon) means the works are still plenty. In the Koreans' 1-0 win over Lebanon, Son Heung-min didn't feature due to a slight injury. This time, as Son Heung-min is destined to return, Kwon Chang-hoon - the only scorer of the Koreans so far this round - suffered a horrific injury that ruled him out of this October, with a potential fear of missing out November games as well. Concerns about the quality of forwards will only increase for manager Paulo Bento, who has overseen a number of games where Korean strikers failed to materialise opportunities since taking the helm of South Korea in 2018; even Son Heung-min has also been neutralised more than one. This is even more precarious when after the game against Syria, South Korea will have to face Iran away, as South Korea's last win against the Iranians was in 2011.
Syria may have only one point, but it is notable when Syria put Iran to the extreme before Jahanbakhsh's goal solved the problem for the Iranians. It has also proven that infighting within the federation doesn't have so many impacts on the Syrians when Syria succeeded with a draw over the UAE, a far stronger opponent. It's even more remarkable when Syria has played without one of the team's main talisman, Omar Al Somah, who will return to the team after two years. It's clear when he has returned to the side on October, Syria's unpredictability will further enlarge - something South Korea definitely needs to find the way to avoid. Still, relying on Omar Al Somah can also be an issue, as the striker has not scored a goal for either club or national level since May, when his club Al Ahli beat Al Qadsiya 1-0, thus he may not have the best form in an important encounter
Despite having only scored three times in this WCQ, Son Heung-min remains the biggest inspiration for the South Korean team as the Tottenham midfielder has provided an assist in Spurs' 5-1 party over Slovenian side Mura. As Omar Al Somah has been recovering after two years hiatus, Syria's biggest hope lies upon Omar Kharbin, Al Somah's formidable companion who has taken part in September's fixtures.
Iraq vs Lebanon
But Iraq's hope to make a second appearance suffered a dent when they lost 0-3 to Iran in a game that was heavily criticised as a complete soulless performance of Dick Advocaat's side. It's necessary to pay attention that Iraq has beaten Iran 2-1 in the WCQ second stage, thus the 0-3 loss and the way how Iraq was totally outclassed and lost control of the game to Iran in the third stage frustrated Iraqi supporters. If Dick Advocaat can't make an immediate reform to overturn the fortunes, Iraq is likely to stay home watching the World Cup, even though just two games were played; Iraq is already sitting bottom place of the group due to goal difference, with no one scoring a goal.
Yet Iraq will face a newly-determined Lebanon - which has just made its only second appearance in this stage. Despite criticism about how Lebanon got the luck to survive, the Lebanese stunned pundits when it put brave performances when facing the UAE and South Korea. Like Iraq, Lebanon has only a point and still seeks for a maiden goal in this phase, but changes by former Czech Republic manager, 1990 WC Czechoslovak captain Ivan Hašek, hinted a new growing optimism, especially when Lebanon is facing a tremendous crisis due to sectarian regime and state corruption.
Iraq will rely much on Mohanad Ali, the 21 years old phenomenon playing in Aris Thessaloniki, after being silenced in September, with expectation running high to see Ali strike again. Lebanon will be much betting its gamble on Mostafa Matar, the 26 years old Ahed goalkeeper whose form in September make him a superstar among Lebanese for outstanding athleticism and saves.
UAE vs Iran
The upcoming battle in Dubai sees the UAE to face Iran for the first time since 2015 AFC Asian Cup, where Iran prevailed 1-0 in dying seconds. Historical encounter between the two nations also favouring Iran, having met 16 times with only one defeat and obtaining over 12 wins. Iran and the UAE are also pretty familiar with the FIFA World Cup qualifying encounters, having done so back in 2002 and 2010 cycles - with a similar ending: Iran being the victor by the majority.
World Cup's runners-up Bert van Marwijk is facing a huge task to engineer the Emiratis back to the World Cup since 1990, after two disappointing draws against Lebanon and Syria - ranked below the UAE in FIFA ranking. The biggest issue for the UAE is, however, the quality of its naturalised players (Brazil's Fabio Lima and Caio Canedo; Argentina's Sebastian Tagliabúe) have proven to be exaggerated when they failed to provide any major meaningful assists for teammates or goals, resulting in the UAE underachieving. Frankly speaking, the upcoming fixture against Iran at home is more likely to be a match more or less good.
This can't be even more dreadful to speak this honest aspect, as a resurgent Iran is blowing up every opponent in the third round, including a 3-0 demolition of fellow Dutchman Advocaat's Iraq (best remind that Iraq is one of only two teams to have won against Iran in 2022 WCQ). Yet it is the way how Iran dominated Iraq in the 3-0 win is something worth paying attention: totally contrast from Iran's struggling efforts against the same opponent in the second round, Iran totally left no space for Iraq to play its skilful football in the Doha showdown. Moreover, it appears the new manager, Dragan Skočić, has found suitable tactics as well as scouting new blood to feed for the team on its revival. Of course, it is too early to tell, but considering the quality of current Iranian squad, three points is the mission Iran looks for when travelling to the Emirates.
The Emirati hosts certainly need Ali Mabkhout more than anyone in the Al-Abyad squad, as he is the UAE's sole scorer and also top scorer, to bright out. Iran, meanwhile, has plenty of good choices, though Feyenoord's Alireza Jahanbakhsh is burning high with his incredible forms after Iran's September fixtures, a contrast from his somewhat lacklustre show up in the Eredivisie.
Group B
China vs Vietnam
The upcoming fixture between China and Vietnam will also be the battle between two bottom-sit teams. To worth mentioning, China and Vietnam have only met seven times since 1991 when unified Vietnam was officially admitted to FIFA - all ended with the victories for the Middle Kingdom. In term of WCQ, China and Vietnam have only met once, back in 1998 WCQ, where Vietnam lost all games to China. The bet also puts China above Vietnam in all stats, and it is supposed to be a chance for the Chinese to gain three points toward its neighbour, one of only two Southeast Asian nations to have never won against China.
Saying like this is still too simplified, as China's run in the third round isn't that dreamy. Despite high expectation from home fans even though China has to play two games away from home (China's September home fixture took place in Qatar), the Chinese disappointed with two humiliating losses to Australia and Japan, not to say unable to even put a shot hit the net. The pressure has increased for Li Tie's side, when former 2002 World Cup participant is still trying to find a suitable scheme. To add the worse, the Chinese Super League has been in turmoil due to club-by-club dissolution or clubs drowned in debts, most recently Jiangsu F.C., champions of 2020 CSL; the Chinese side has also been impacted by Evergrande crisis - the same company that bankrolled China's most successful football club in the 21st century, Guangzhou F.C., leaving China's squad in limbo due to the contribution of these players on China's side, including a number of naturalised footballers like Elkeson. The team is also severely ravaged by injuries, with over seven players to be omitted for the upcoming encounter; not to mention the average age of Team Dragons is the highest among all 12 participants. Like in September, China's home game in October is not held in China, but rather the UAE's city of Sharjah.
Vietnam's squad is also in no better situation as injuries are adding a burden for Park Hang-seo's team - as for the result, he has to find new replacements, with some promising results. Still, Vietnam's inexperience with the third round was revealed in the encounters against Saudi Arabia and Australia. The only thing that sat Vietnam away from China is the goal in Vietnam's 1-3 loss to Saudi Arabia that allowed Vietnam to sit above China. Still, the Vietnamese side has shown that it doesn't seem to be too scared of the stage, as it has demonstrated a fair performance and a flexible yet disciplined organisation in spite of chronic injuries of many of their players, something that was underlined and appreciated even by opponents' coaches. It's very much fuelling a real expectation from Vietnamese fans, whom are eager for the encounter against China due to historical issues that traced for thousands years. The weak point is, sadly, Vietnam has the lowest height average among all teams in this third round, something founded already by the Chinese - two of four goals Vietnam conceded in September came from headers.
Espanyol's Wu Lei, one of the highest profile Chinese footballers in the country's drought era, has just gotten a good perpetration for the game against Vietnam by appearing in the club's shock 2-1 win over juggernaut Real Madrid, and is China's biggest hope despite languishing from his prime a few years ago. Meanwhile, Vietnam's Nguyễn Công Phượng, who will return to the game in October after withdrew from September fixtures due to family affairs, is seen to be a major boost for Vietnam's somewhat below quality strikers.
Australia vs Oman
Australia and Oman have met each other nine times, with Australia edging over by 5 wins, 3 draws and one loss. Yet again, the upcoming October clash between two nations promise to be an even harder task for the Australians as Oman is poising to a major threat for anyone competing, especially after what happened in September. Memories of the 2014 WCQ also remain relevant, as Australia struggled and only qualified to Brazil by the final matchday, in which Oman contributed a major role on Australia's hard-fought journey after sharing each one win and two draws.
Australia is designated as "hosts", but instead, they choose the same Qatari ground due to COVID-19 restriction at home, another devastating blow for Graham Arnold's side. To be fair, despite having won in September, it has failed to dissuade scepticism among supporters of the Socceroos, who believed Australia need a complete overhaul and that Graham Arnold is not capable for the job. The Oz is likely to return in November after Football Australia and the government succeeded in negotiating bubble travel application, but it is unclear how will Australia implement. Thus, Australia will have to take its bet with a number of players abroad, now mostly languish in the second tiers of Europe's top five or highest tier leagues of medium-sized nations in the UEFA. The risk is always there after Australia's gritty win over Vietnam, in a game that Vietnam created more chances and almost got a penalty (though bad pitch was blamed as the main reason). To make it more difficult, despite knowing how close Qatar and Oman are, the Australian officials still risk choosing Qatar to host the encounter, like putting 50-50 despite criticisms. Currently, except for squad announcement and Arnold's attempt to calm the sceptics about Australia's Middle Eastern choice, Australia's perpetration is a black hole as they have completely closed off for media. Even if Australia can win, their biggest test is Japan, an opponent Australia has failed to win since 2009.
Yet the low information of Australian footballers nowadays compared to its highly successful predecessors is a chance for Oman. Not surprising when Oman's manager, Branko Ivanković, pridefully stated that Oman will gain six points from both Australia and Vietnam. His words are not a joke: Oman has shocked Asia already in September by winning Asian hegemon Japan right in Japanese soil before only bowing to neighbour Saudi Arabia in a fairly contested showdown at home. His open confident came so high that Oman did even arrange a fairly inferior opponent for a friendly game, Nepal, which culminated in a 7-2 win. Not just not hiding the ambitions, the Croatian coach even guaranteed that Oman will be in the World Cup sooner or later. The current Omani side is also fairly organised as well - it has succeeded in standing in front of Japanese attacks and almost put Saudi Arabia into the same tragedy. Branko is also injecting a mentality of fearlessness for the Omanis, a key evidence explaining Oman's exhibiting fierceness.
Stoke City's Harry Souttar is, by far, the biggest Australian to make an impact as the Socceroo playing in English Championship is going rampage despite the age and is recently linked to play in the Premier League by Everton and Tottenham Hotspurs, already captained for Stoke four times this season. The Omanis will welcome Abdulaziz Al-Muqbali, the 32 years old veteran whose experience against Australia in the past qualifier is guaranteed to be helpful in a game Oman is definitely eager to inflict another shock.
Saudi Arabia vs Japan
The hottest upcoming encounter in this stage is no other than the fixture featuring Asian powerhouses Saudi Arabia and Japan, which is going to be played in Jeddah's King Abdullah Sports City, rather than the original Mrsool Park in the capital Riyadh. For such a game like this, a big stadium is needed. The two nations have met in recent 2018 qualifiers, where each shared one win, including the final win that oversaw Saudi Arabia booking one of the first four direct ticket and forced Australia into a hazardous playoff series. In the H2H record, Saudi Arabia trails behind Japan with 5 wins compared to Japan's 10, with only one ended in a draw.
Nonetheless, the Saudi hosts have clear advantages, not just one but plenty of them. Hervé Renard's team is on a perfect mode at home in the WCQ, as well as gaining six points, including a hard-fought 1-0 win away to neighbouring Oman - the opponent that Japan suffered a shock crash. The Saudis also have a historical edge against Japan when playing home, having won all four home games against the East Asians without conceding. Not just that, it seems like Saudi Arabia's squad is having its finest, with only a few members under watch in fears of injuries. Also in the same King Abdullah Sports City, Saudi Arabia marked its comeback after missing out of 2010 and 2014 editions - thus Saudi Arabia is eager to repeat the same performance. If Saudi Arabia can beat Japan, it can be the chance for Saudi Arabia to finish off its upcoming opponent the same month, China, which is weakened by infighting within the federation and a systemic crackdown that caused football clubs to be drown in debts.
Indeed, Japan's fourth place after just two games is what unsettled coach Hajime Moriyasu, who has evaded early sacking after an unpromising September. The shock home defeat in Suita to Oman, an opponent that shares a lot of traits with Saudi Arabia except for World Cup appearance, is very impactful. Even Japan's 1-0 win over China also sees the Japanese unable to convert more than one, and showing signs of exhaustion from the last twenty minutes. To add the worse, Japan will not have Real Madrid product Takefusa Kubo due to an injury that ruled him out of October and potentially even November. Losing a number of key players have put Moriyasu's perpetration into questions. On the good side, England-based Takehiro Tomiyasu is showing a great sign in Arsenal, something Japan totally lacked in September as fellow EPL teammate Takumi Minamino has not reclaimed the pace. Still, travelling to Saudi Arabia is easier said than done - it is about to win, yet the Saudis have been by far the biggest test for Japan. If Japan can't win against Saudi Arabia, it will be forced to take the encounter against fellow Asian powerhouse Australia in an unthinkable stressful process. Moriyasu only has October to keep his already rocky position - anything but victories will be the end of his coaching career with the national team.
Al-Hilal's Saleh Al-Shehri has already been the Green Falcons' top scorer in this campaign so far, with two decisive goals to overcome minnows Vietnam and Oman. As spoken about Japan, Takehiro Tomiyasu has emerged as the new star in Mikel Arteta's unstable Arsenal side for his solid defence that contributed to Arsenal's three straight wins, which is needed for Samurai Blue in a trip predicted to be highly difficult.
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