Iran has placed gambles in wrong people - now most of them are getting backfired

Iran tried to play the cards about supporting various groups, including sectarian and non-sectarian ones, as the mean to gather control for power. It has succeeded with a lot of groups at the initial phrase, to a point it has nothing to be worried, at least, in short term.

Now, it is getting backfired, but in an unusual style, the Iranian regime has not shown any clear reactions. So, was the silence of Iranian regime an attempt to diffuse the bomb it has unofficially activated... against itself?

The wrong gamble in Afghanistan

Afghanistan was a country of instability since the Soviet invasion of 1979. When the Soviets left in 1989, it left an Afghanistan in ruins. Pakistan was quick to fill the hole, alongside Saudi Arabia, by arming the Taliban, facilitating its power to rise. Iran, already embroiled in a bloody stalemate with Iraq, didn't make further moves. It didn't intervene immediately to help Tajikistan, a fellow Persianic nation seceded from the Soviet Union, to fend of the spreading of Taliban fighters. Ultimately, Tajikistan, with helps from Russia and other Central Asian nations, routed the Islamists and Taliban out of the country.

But while Iran was unable to provide security for Tajikistan, the murder of Iranian diplomats by Taliban in mid-1990s forced Iran to arm the Northern Alliance and anti-Taliban Islamists. A war almost broke out between Iran and Pakistan after Tehran blamed Islamabad for inflaming war in Afghanistan. Border between Iran and Pakistan always remain in high alert, though Taliban's removal in 2001, was a surprise that Iran welcomed.

Of course, the Iranian regime is Islamist from the core since 1979, so it welcomed Americans on temporary basis. Once it saw the United States prompted up Afghanistan with a group of American-trained people, Iran re-approached Taliban and even provided weapons and secret intelligence supports. Iran overturned all the previous hostilities and when the Americans vacated from Afghanistan in 2021, Iran was among the first to signal hope to establish tie with the new Taliban government that claimed power in just a week with little fighting.

Yet, when Tehran expected the most, Taliban denounced Iran and began a mass persecution of Hazaras, a Shi'a Muslim minority living across Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as assembling army with attempt to wage war against Tajikistan, Iran's closest ally. To make it worse, Taliban defamed Iranian influence as the worst in Afghanistan after America's and vowed to restore its intolerance, monstrous rule it did in 1990s. Taliban also maintains an open link with Saudi Arabia, its previous supporter whom shared a common Salafist-Deobandist opinion. It should be noted that Saudi Arabia was among the few in 1990s to recognise Taliban's rule and has not advice citizens to leave the country in spite of flagging about security concerns. Saudi Arabia is also Iran's arch-foe.

Like a spat to its face, Iranian government hurriedly ramped up its military movements. In a speech at mid-September, Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi stated that Iran and Tajikistan shared a joint stance toward Afghanistan. Considering Tajikistan is the most vocal critic against Taliban's regime, it could be explicitly translated into a quiet Iranian backup for Tajikistan. Iran has also warned its citizens of security in Afghanistan, with some Iranians returned back home from an increasing violent Afghanistan. With Riyadh likely to opens a new anti-Iranian frontier, after the most recent talks between her and Iran broke down, the Ayatollah government has started to lose confidence.

Failing to aid Armenia

Iran's another major blow turned out to be its inability to speak in favour of Armenia in the Caucasus, most recently the 2020 September war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The September war here we are talking evolved around the Karabakh region, an Armenian-dominated region but internationally recognised as a part of Azerbaijan. The region has already been hostile since the end of WWI, but reignited with the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991.

Iran was not hostile to Azerbaijan though, at least before the middle of 1990s Karabakh War. Iran in fact sought to build a harmonious relationship with Azerbaijan by acknowledging its independence and even flooded with Iranian advisors on Azerbaijani military in early phase conflict with Armenia. Iranian regime hoped, by using the Islamic solidarity card, would gain popular support. It could have worked considering Azerbaijanis are Shiites by majority.

It backfired when Azerbaijani population, the majority of them spoke a Turkic accent other than being Shi'a, voted for Abulfaz Elchibey, a historian of the Popular Front, in June 1992. Elchibey immediately positioned his policy as a fervent pan-Turkist and Iranophobic President. Not more than one that Elchibey spoke in front of his populace and even Turkish government that Elchibey considered himself a Turk, and that Iran tacitly supported Armenia. As for the result, Iran dramatically shifted its policy, recalling all Iranian military advisors out of Azerbaijan while trying to pressure Armenia to halt its advance. But Elchibey's anti-Iranian rhetorics persisted, even going as far as calling for Azerbaijani minority in Iran to revolt, unifying Azerbaijani population in Iran to the Republic itself. Elchibey was toppled in June 1993 due to deterioration in Karabakh frontier, but Azerbaijanis by this point is too embedded with anti-Iranian views. The government of Iran didn't get the fruits in Azerbaijan, and changed in favour to Armenia.

Indeed, Armenia may be Christian by outlook and by the depth culturally, but it is pretty much okay with Iran. Due to Karabakh War, Iranian government became Armenia-friendly, and left out the Armenians from the list of persecution. Iranian government meanwhile sought to wrestle and weaken Azerbaijani minority, an ironic fact considering the current Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, is Azerbaijani by ethnicity. Anti-Iranian pamphlets among Azerbaijanis are enhanced deeper by the fact that Baku establishes ties with Iran's archenemy Israel. Azerbaijani intelligence, often with assists from Turkey, frequently arrested Iranian spies in the country. Iran, meanwhile, also provided supplies for the Armenian-held Karabakh region, often unofficially, because Iran doesn't recognise the independence of Armenian Karabakh, or Artsakh.

However, when Hassan Rouhani, a more moderate person to become President of Iran in 2013, Iran and Azerbaijan had better relations. Not just only Iran assured it would not meddle in Azerbaijan's affairs, but also reiterated Iran's clear stance about Karabakh. Painfully, Azerbaijan saw this as Iranian government's clear words of upholding its promise, and after seven years of planning, it relaunched attacks in September 2020 with Turkish and Israeli supports, defeating Armenia at the shock of Iran. Iranian government was accused of staying silent and failing to aid its Armenian allies when it needed.

This was a serious grief that Tehran could not overcome. After Ebrahim Raisi got elected in August 2021 as Iran's new President, Raisi's hardline policies were introduced, including attempts to reassert Iranian power in the Caucasus, which was severely hurt by Armenia's loss. In September the same year, Iran launched a number of military drills near Azerbaijan's border, justified by the fears of Israel and Islamic State. Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan's dictator since 2003, accused Iran of provoking tensions and announced an upcoming drill with Turkey.

Still, Iranian leadership might have been deceived. Iran expected Azerbaijan to be nice rather than changing the initial status quo, which Iran preferred over the new border changes. Instead, Azerbaijan got the signal and Iran was trapped between trying to maintain an alliance with Armenia or to keep Azerbaijan away from being hostile. In the end, it had chosen the latter, and proved to be undoing.

Iran's power in turmoil at the Levant

But Iran's string of defeat isn't just limited in Caucasus and Afghanistan - the Levant is also encircling Iran's ambition.

Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, three Levant nations, were where Iranian power got exercised. Since 1980s, Iran began to muster and strengthen alliance with Syrian regime of the Alawite family Al Assad, as well as Lebanon's Hezbollah. By 2000s, with Saddam Hussein's regime toppled in Iraq, Iran also poured billions to aid Iran-backed militants. These groups began to ravage both three nations, especially since the Syrian civil war in 2011. Iran has also shown commitment when it supported Bashar Al Assad, son of Hafez whom Iran made an alliance with. By calling for Shiite fighters across Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and even Central Asia to join the fight in Syria, Iran succeeded in removing Saudi and Turkish proxies, mostly, and maintain its power grip.

Of course, Iran's win was done with a lot miseries. Both three Levant nations are already collapsed - this led to widespread anti-Iranian unrests since 2019. The Iranian government has backtracked from supporting in fears of repercussions, but Lebanese and Iraqi protesters had named Iran as the biggest profiteer on their own miserable situations - and demanded Iran to get out. No doubt that Iran feared the protests to inflame the same fervour in Iran, and has been trying to prevent it from coming. Recently in Iraqi elections, almost every pro-Iranian group has been voted out of the government.

Perhaps, Iran has slept on its victories and forgot the basis for too long.

Will Iran ever learn?

Considering the current regime of Iran is a revolutionary, it's hard to believe Iran will give up these expansionist attempts. But since Tehran fails to promote soft power in need, it has led to severe repercussions.

If Iran ever really changes, it should uproot itself from the half-isolationist policy, and to re-engage with a new, multipolar world. Yet the main power lies on the hand of an Ayatollah and is unlikely to make any better move if not to say, even more censoring and isolating.

And now, Iran is paying a heavy price with its gambles, where it achieved mostly short-lived victories to receive disastrous ends. Now, Iran, facing burdens, will have to deal by trying to enhance powers of their own puppets.