A short preview on the 2022 FIFA World Cup qualification third round in Asia – Matchday 5
Matchday 5 will mark the end of the 1st leg of the qualification campaign. And already now, some teams have known their fates. Is this clear or not, perhaps only they can find out.
Group A
Lebanon vs Iran
No one could imagine that after four matches, it is Lebanon, and not the likes of Iraq, Syria and the UAE, that are really chasing behind Iran and South Korea for a place in Qatar 2022, standing third with five points, which might guarantee a playoff spot. It's somewhat hailed as a glorious achievement for a country that is already plundered into a massive economic and political crisis, the key reason why Lebanon has to play away for two months.
But as much as Lebanese people have been hoping for, the upcoming home return, to be scheduled in the city of Sidon, is a do-or-die battle against Iran, a major Asian football force. The Iranians had just slipped out with an unwanted draw at home to South Korea. However, South Korea is also an equal opponent for Iran, so this draw is just a slight hurdle and will not have any impact on the Iranians so much, at least if Iran continues its rioting form.
H2H record also greatly favours the Iranians, as Iran won 8 (D1, L1) out of ten. Yet, in the same qualifying round for Brazil 2014, it was the same trip away that Iran conceded, and lost, for the first-time ever to the Lebanese side. Time has changed and Iran soon reasserts back its domination over the Lebanese, so it is very fair to say that Iran will be likely to claim three points. As such, the biggest hope for Lebanon this time is they must demonstrate a disciplined performance, like how they showed against the UAE, Iraq and South Korea.
Lebanon's youngster Mohammad Kdouh fired twice to deliver Lebanon an unthinkable 3-2 comeback over Syria; meanwhile, Iran's Alireza Jahanbakhsh has been essential, scoring three goals for Iran after four matches.
Trivia: Lebanon has not conceded first half goal in the first 45 minutes in three first fixtures before the encounter against Syria.
South Korea vs UAE
While achieving 8 points (2W, 2D) isn't really a formidable result, the situation in the group allowed the Koreans a good breathe. South Korea is, in fact, better than the current miserable situation of its neighbour Japan when it comes to the same stage. Returning home with a necessary point away in Iran, South Korea looks like will book a place to Qatar.
Of course, South Korea's attack is still somewhat questionable. South Korea doesn't lack good strikers or even capable leaders, but its ability to capitalise is still somewhat rigid. Therefore, an immediate improvement will have to be taken if South Korea needs to ensure a place in Qatar.
Lucky for the South Koreans, its opponent UAE has shown an even more horrible record than them. Despite being initially seen as competitive enough to challenge for a third place spot, the UAE has left nothing but a total disappointment, with three draws and one loss. More worryingly, the Emiratis has been unable to capitalise several opportunities to finish the game against fairly weaker or equal opponents in the group, leaving the UAE at risk of failing to fulfil the task or returning to World Cup, since its lone appearance in 1990.
Certainly, this game is a do-or-die business for Lambertus van Marwijk, who is appointed twice in just two years to guide the Emiratis. But the UAE's away record against South Korea is very much a concern, having never won playing in Korean soil (D2, L3), and with how the UAE is showing, it is very unclear if the UAE can ever overturn its miserable record away.
Son Heung-min has returned to prominence with a goal that provided South Korea somewhat a relief with a draw over Iran, and the Tottenham midfielder is likely to be starting again. Meanwhile, Ali Mabkhout contributed two out of the UAE's only three goals so far in the campaign.
Trivia: South Korea has never scored more than two goals against teams that ranked from 100 above in the qualifiers.
Iraq vs Syria
Both Iraq and Syria are showing completely dismal records in the qualifiers, so this is no doubt the game will be the decisive one between two neighbouring countries, with only one to win, or a draw will place both of them further away from the World Cup dream.
Dick Advocaat's Iraq has failed the expectation of fans when Iraq won just three points out of four, all happened with draws, although it can be blamed for Iraq losing home advantage due to widespread unrest. For a team that has stunned Iran and drawn South Korea, this result is surely a blunder. Injuries also ravaged Iraq when necessary personnel were the ones that got hit the most. This was best highlighted already in these previous fixtures. The Dutchman will need to discover the other hidden gems and to make them manufacturing goals or Iraq's hope to return since 1986 will slip further.
Syria is even more tragic than that of Iraq when Nizar Mahrous' Syria failed to do what they did back in 2018 qualifiers, at least for now. While the run is still at least March 2022, Syria has accumulated only one point from a draw over the UAE, which is also winless. The shock defeat to neighbour Lebanon previously had greatly impacted the morale of the Syrian side, thus any hope to debut in the World Cup seems to be a distant dream, if winning is not on its book.
Aymen Hussein is Iraq's only scorer in the qualifier so far, as Iraq's other goal, all came against the UAE, was an own goal. Omar Kharbin stroke twice for Syria in October, though Syria achieved nothing in that month.
Trivia: Iraq has failed to score in the first 45 minutes throughout the third round of the qualification.
Group B
Australia vs Saudi Arabia
The sudden blowing 1-2 loss away to Japan was a huge blow on the morale of Australia as they lost the top position, and this is even more painful when the loss arrived at the time that Australia could have put Japan's campaign to jeopardy. This time, Australia will return home for the first time after two years of wandering for the upcoming opponent that is topping the group with a perfect record, Saudi Arabia.
Australia has shown significant improvement in term of scoring as they have become less reliant on set-pieces and is more teamwork-in-building, however, how far will Australia deliver in its home return remains to be seen. And the situation does not seem to be helpful when Australian internationals just did not have so much happiness in European competitions. On the other hand, with the Australian government temporarily lifted some restrictions, opportunities for native-based players, many with previous experiences in Europe's top leagues, to fill the hole of its compatriots increased. Still, the loss to Japan had led to widespread criticism against Graham Arnold, the boss of Australia, as his ability to coach the Socceroos to be put on table, with a potential sacking if Australia can't achieve the win over the Saudis.
Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, is flying high under the management of Frenchman Hervé Renard, and is likely to continue the run for the goal to Qatar 2022. Saudi Arabia, therefore, is likely to head to Down Under with an upper hand as pressures will be on the Australian side rather than the Gulf visitors. Unsurprisingly, Renard underlines that Saudi Arabia has to leave Sydney with three points.
However, it should be noted that Saudi Arabia has not even gained a draw when playing as visitors in Down Under (3L), even when Saudi Arabia has some of the finest coaches on the bench. If Saudi Arabia wants to break this miserable record, it will need to deal with Australia's physical display. It is this physical display that Saudi Arabia has been unable to beat Australia in the past, and also Australia seems to be in a completely different mod when facing Saudi Arabia, something that will put Renard's side in danger if he can't realise this.
Australia is going to welcome back Mathew Leckie, the top scorer of Australia's November squad with 13 goals and also the captain of the Socceroos in this important battle. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's young star Firas Al-Buraikan has delivered a spectacular performance in October with two goals being scored by him.
Trivia: both Australia and Saudi Arabia seem not so fond of scoring at the first half, as both two's deciding goals come at the final 45 minutes.
Vietnam vs Japan
Vietnam will return home in November, both against two very big names in Asian football, with these fixtures likely to be the country's last stands if Vietnam ever thinks about the country's unlikely 2022 Qatar appearance. So far, Vietnam shares an inglorious record with San Marino, Gibraltar and Djibouti (with the OFC qualifying phase has yet to begin) as being pointless throughout the current qualifying round.
There has been some optimism whatever, as injuries have no longer ravaged the Vietnamese side and its youth backup, based on the recent successful U-23 Asian Cup qualifiers, demonstrated some worthiness, eased the brain of the Korean boss Park Hang-seo. However, will they ever prove worthiness is a question to be answered. On the bright side though, out of Vietnam's all four losses, three were played away, the home loss to Australia is somewhat attributed to its unluckiness.
Meanwhile, Japan pays a visit to Vietnam knowing that the emotional 2-1 victory over Australia has greatly eased concerns, after a string of poor show in the earlier phase of this final round (1W, 2L). More importantly, this also relieved the current boss of Japan, Hajime Moriyasu, from being sacked, not once but twice (Japan already beat China 1-0 before). Considering how lucky Hajime is, people may keep counting on Japan to bet for another win.
Yet it is easier said than done, when seeing how Japan is showing. It's extremely worrying when Japan's strikers have failed to score more than one (the goal that sealed Japan's 2-1 win over Australia was an own goal). Coincidentally, the most recent encounter saw Japan could only beat Vietnam via a penalty, happened back in the quarter-finals of the 2019 AFC Asian Cup, with a nearly identical group of players that are likely to be lined up on the field.
Vietnam's lone light is Nguyễn Tiến Linh as he scored twice in October even though his teammates have proven incapable to defend his achievements. Takehiro Tomiyasu is going in form with Arteta's Arsenal as the club makes a surprising resurgence, and is seen as potentially possible to help Japan in the game in Hanoi as Japan's fragile defence has been the reason for Japan's struggling situation.
Trivia: before the final round of the qualifiers, Vietnam has not lost a single home game from 2016 to 2021, yet many of Vietnam's home games happened to be ended with just one goal margin.
China vs Oman
However, Oman is showing itself an increasingly paranoid opponent that China can't risk to underestimate. The boys of Branko Ivanković has shown why they're the real dark horse, notably with an away win over Japan. Equalling six points and sitting on top over the Japanese, the Omanis knew that a win will bring them closer to the World Cup dream as Oman has never debuted in any World Cup at history. Oman's strength lies within its discipline and the control of the game, which allows Oman to achieve even the slightest chances to score over.
Therefore, in a game that both found itself in a must-win situation, one point is something not appreciated, though it is the Chinese hosts likely to thirst for it.
The hosts can welcome back Wu Lei, who has a warm-up game in Espanyol's 2-0 win over Granada, as well as the man who brought China historic three points in the third round. Meanwhile, Arshad Al-Alawi is rising to become a big name in Omani football as his display throughout the qualifiers have brought hopes on Oman's miraculous run.
Trivia: both Oman's September and October fixtures saw both its winning and losing scorelines equal one by one.
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