When your neighbour is stronger than you in football - the comparison story of autocratic Russia and China

When China surprised with a 1-1 draw over Asian powerhouse Australia in Sharjah (already downed 0-3 earlier), Russia had just lost to Croatia 0-1, thus missing out a direct place into the World Cup and relegated to the playoffs (even though if qualified, Russia would have not been allowed to use the anthem and flag of Russia). This may have taken you to an illusion that China has gone better, and it is just a matter of time.

Believe it not, it is complicated. Well, Russia and China are neighbours, both develop a similar autocratic ideology, both have restless nationalist population, both have desires of redrawing border. By far, China is far ahead of Russia in everything: economics, science, technology, education, etc. You know it.

But China is not always superior to the poorer Russian state. And yet in one of the most necessary tool to demonstrate Xi Jinping's autocratic dream, China has done fairly poor compared to Russia - football. China could have been a superpower - but it has not achieved much in the task of making itself a football empire. Meanwhile, Russia, with an economy only 1/15 of China today, has done well, though not at full best, in football. So, should we need to take a look at the recent 2022 WCQ?

Russia has shown signs of progress under Valeri Karpin.

Well, Russia has been somewhat capable of fielding a national team for the 2018 FIFA World Cup hosted by it, and even going as far as almost knocking Croatia out of contention if not for an unfortunate own goal from Fyodor Kudryashov. To be frank, Russia was drawn in a not so welcoming group stage, outside Croatia, it has to compete with Slovenia and Slovakia, two other very annoying opponents. Slovenia and Slovakia actually did have some edges when facing Russia, the former kicked Russia out of 2010 World Cup dream, while the latter inflicted Russia's painful defeat in Euro 2016. By this point, not many Russians would expect the team to do anything good.

It could have been the point. Under Stanislav Cherchesov, Russia entered the qualification with new fresh blood, only 2018 World Cup star Artem Dzyuba remained in the team, as such, Russia didn't perform so good as expected, only beat Slovenia 2-1 before falling away to Slovakia with the same scoreline. Cherchesov's tenure with the team would not end with another miracle - Russia was eliminated from the group stage of Euro 2020 in an agonising fashion, finishing bottom with its only win came against Finland. Valeri Karpin, who spent his final days of professional career in Spain (and also learnt coaching there), was hurriedly appointed coach of Russia, with his contract expired regardless of Russia qualifying or not. Karpin's experience as coach was mostly with Spartak Moscow, Rostov and Mallorca, with results are not so impressive. So, what was the point for a manager like that?

Yet as Karpin took charge, Russia almost overturned the history. It took a 1-0 vengeance against Slovakia at home with a very defensive approach, before succeeded in trumping Slovenia away for the first-time ever, a 2-1 win in Maribor. Of course, Croatia finally prevented Russia though, at least thanked for an own goal mentioned above, but being in the playoffs is not a bad result for a rebuilding Russian side. Moreover, the work Karpin did, though far from complete, heralds a new hope for Russian football.

While China remains stagnated with its porous dream.

In the case of China, the Chinese dream even bigger than that of Russia's. Yet China's squad is filled with a lot of over-aged players than expectation (Chinese team is the oldest in the qualification). This has been largely blamed on China's long mismanagement of youth pool. This has resulted in China obtaining just five points out of six (China's group contains Australia, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Oman and Vietnam), and on the verge of a near elimination.

There has also been blame on the tactics of Li Tie, current manager of China. Li Tie's tactics deeply rely on long ball passing and there is a lack of coordinated approaches despite the genuine group of players. This has resulted in China frequently being left wide in their defence, often resulting in disastrous outcomes. Even in China's lone three points it won over Vietnam, China's defence collapsed horribly in the last 10 minutes of the second half. The reason why China managed to draw Australia, by surprise, is also due to Graham Arnold's fault - the Australian boss had applied a too conservative approach despite Australia had the ability to finish off the game, eventually wasted the chance and put Australia in danger of playoffs - this is unlikely for Japan and Saudi Arabia to ever repeat the same thing when facing the physically tall but clumsy Chinese side.

China is surely planning for the upcoming 2023 AFC Asian Cup, in which the country shall host. But with the way the Chinese are showing, any miraculous opportunities to win will require a massive u-turn of luck. Li Tie is not going to be fired, but he is unlikely to keep his head long enough if the Chinese still fail to see another World Cup, perhaps 2026 one.

Valeri Karpin in actions during the 2002 FIFA World Cup.

There have been a lot of commons between Valeri Karpin and Li Tie.

Firstly, both Valeri Karpin and Li Tie were former footballers of their respective countries, and they represented their nations in their own new era; for Karpin, it was the new Russian team following the demise of USSR, while Li had his honeymoon playing for China's golden age. Interestingly, they both played in the midfield.

Second, Valeri Karpin and Li Tie had also represented in a common tournament: the 2002 FIFA World Cup. While Russia qualified for the second World Cup since the demise of the Soviet Union (which Russia was named as official successor), this tournament was China's first and only for now. Their unique World Cup shares allow them to be registered into the history of World Cup participants.

Third, both Karpin and Li retired, then embarked on coaching career. Valeri Karpin was first given the post as manager of Spartak Moscow, while Li Tie began as youth coach of Chinese giant Guangzhou F.C., as well as assistant coach for the Chinese side. Spartak Moscow and Guangzhou F.C. are both very large clubs in their respective countries.

Fourth, Karpin and Li both ventured to Europe's top 5 at their height. Karpin chose Spain, where he would end his career at Real Sociedad, the first club he joined in; while Li would go on land in Liverpool for Everton club, and had six years in England.

Fifth, when they both began their careers, they started in low-life clubs. For Karpin, he began with Sport Tallinn, as he was born in Estonia SSR. For Li, he found himself a mark with Liaoning, where he was born.

Li Tie in actions during the 2002 FIFA World Cup.

But not everything is the same. Karpin and Li have many commons yet many differences.

Career

Karpin and Li's careers, both were midfielders, together brought them to Europe's Top 5 Leagues, but their paths weren't common. Karpin was an attacking midfielder while Li was Karpin's opposite.

Karpin made his new life in Spain, like many common Russian patriots like Alexander Mostovoi and Oleg Salenko post-Soviet era. But unlike Salenko, and more coincidence with Mostovoi, his career got a lot of marks. Began with Real Sociedad, he quickly became a prominent part of the club for two seasons for his performance, but later loaned to Valencia, spending only a year with little success. He joined Mostovoi's Celta Vigo in 1997, and the duo created a phenomenal Celta side. Karpin left in 2002 after a successful stint to return to Real Sociedad, where he would bid a goodbye in yet another memorable stint.

By contrast, Li's career was quite great in Liaoning sent him to Brazil in a sponsored youth training, and even spent five rosy years with the club. But as he began to move to England, his life in Everton is very poor. Not just only failing to achieve anything for Everton, he was also sent to the bench by Sheffield United for two years without ever playing for a minute. Thus a sad career in Europe saw him returned to China, but he couldn't also do better. Eventually, he retired in 2011, with just one FA Cup won with English outfit Everton.

Coaching methods

The sagas of Valeri Karpin are plenty. He is a controversial manager, once renowned for his racism in a televised performance when he talked to the media, referring to black people "niggas". Karpin is not the type of manager you could think really positive about him. Also, when he coached Spartak Moscow from 2009 to 2012, he had conflicts with a lot of players, it did cost him his job. When he travelled to Spain for Mallorca, his coaching career began in August 2014 and ended short in February 2015 due to a string of poor form. Currently, he is in the cold war with Artem Dzyuba, Zenit's hitman and, for once, the key member of Russian team during the 2018 FIFA World Cup.

But as much as he is ugly from his behaviour, you can't deny he made a lot of impacts on the Russian side. When he took over from Stanislav Cherchesov after the disastrous Euro 2020, Russia was really an one-man team, deeply dependant on Artem Dzyuba, the Ukrainian-born captain. Russia was totally running out of idea and lacked the discipline it used to back in the World Cup. Karpin decided that Russia would not need Dzyuba - a totally new team was created. Karpin openly omitted Dzyuba and other veteran players like Magomed Ozdoyev, Yuri Zhirkov and Denis Cheryshev to make rooms for the likes of young talents like Matvei Safonov, Maksim Mukhin, Igor Diveyev, Konstantin Tyukavin, Arsen Zakharyan, Zelimkhan Bakayev, Ilzat Akhmetov, Gamid Agalarov, Alexander Golovin and Andrei Mostovoy, activating a revolution. Many of these young boys performed so well that Russia almost qualified directly, before an own goal from Kudryashov crushed these hopes.

As Karpin had promised, he would make a new Russian team that where 11 can work like 11. He did. Though his contract is likely to expire following the playoffs, but considering the time gap of his arrival, it is likely that Karpin will be awarded to continue his work until 2024, at least for that.

Li Tie has a much more quiet life. He's not the kind of person that always made sagas like Valeri Karpin. However, because Li Tie is never known to be a flexible person - he is pretty reliant on the seeds he has rather than ever implementing new ones. This is best witnessed during the qualification, when Li is totally dependant on the same group of men he has on hands, instead of trying to assemble a stronger squad or even injecting youngsters like Tao Qianglong, for example.

As we have seen throughout China's campaign, despite having a win and two draws, the general form of China is dismal. He has failed to spot out new potential players and struggles with the remainders, including some Brazilians got naturalised in the team. His tactics are pretty rough and simple, with only Australia's Graham Arnold perhaps equally poor in this.

Li is still on the run to find out which strategy to be implemented. As his contract will end when the 2023 AFC Asian Cup held at his homeland concluded, Li still has time to do it clearly, but don't expect so much if China's form remains that way.

Federation?

But the way how the Russians and Chinese federations work also offer an insight about their football's prowess.

In Russia's case, the Russian Football Union (RFU) is no perfect. It has been run by a number of henchmen with close tie to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. Still, in spite of the imperfect, if not saying autocratic nature of RFU and Vladimir Putin's interference, that doesn't mean Russia can't assemble a strong team. It is worth noting that Putin has encouraged his businessmen to take over football clubs in Europe as the mean to transport money and to encourage the learning of Western European football training techniques.

This allowed the Russians to have, in varying degrees, the knowledge to function. Moreover, its clubs are also benefited by participating in European competitions, where group stage's entrance would gain even more money than AFC Champions League's winners. Still, the biggest reason why Russia can still field a national team good enough is because of the country's domestic league. The Russian Premier League isn't Europe's top, but it is sustainable. Russian clubs are very old and have long traditions. These institutions have survived difficulties from time. Knowing that they don't have the large budget like the other more powerful football nations, it is best to develop and nurture its homeground men.

In China's case, the Chinese Football Association (CFA) may have been responsible for encouraging a lot of wrong policies despite muscular financial power. When Xi Jinping, a passionate football fan and also the current dictator of China, announced that China must host, qualify and win it, Chinese business people began to throw money into clubs to buy love and respect from Xi. Their ingenuine sponsorship led to Chinese clubs extremely wealthy, yet also fragile. When Xi launched crackdown since 2019, its clubs burst and many have folded.

And what about the money? Well, it came into China's clubs to spend billions buying foreign superstars, to broadcasting rights, etc, but failed to appreciate the merits of homeground players. It's no secret that China is drying out of their youth talents, in spite of wealth. The decline of China's performance is rooted from it.

Can China learn from Russia?

This is pretty tricky.

China has a lot of potential in becoming a global football superpower, but with the way they're doing, it is not clear how can they materialise it. Still, Russia with a smaller budget has managed to achieve more in football than that of China, it may speculate that if China learns how to do it right, it can become a superpower in the sport as hoped.

Unfortunately, China's small-minded desire for a complete domination, if not saying a total disregard of the other pillars to become a football force, has hampered the country from making progress.

Perhaps, China should begin to be serious about youth football and also pays attention to the grassroot, while trying to convince families that football is not a problem for their children's education. This depends on how far will the Chinese want, but if they do well, China's return to World Cup is not far anymore.