With the war in Ukraine ongoing, Vietnamese people are divided more than ever - even within the Communist Party


As the war in Ukraine unfolded, the situation became increasingly precarious and tense. For this reason, we are also seeing a massive wave of uncertain, divided sentiment among Vietnamese population. That division definitely helped by the fact that, as globalisation grows, so do are the public perceptions.

And yet this division is something that would surprise me the most. Probably, this is the biggest and most important change ever occur among Vietnamese society, a society formerly closed off to the world. While it is fair to say the change won't accelerate quickly, it is a good sign for Vietnamese people to stand up with what it believed to be, the truth.

So, what are we getting here now?

Within the Communist Party, the power lies entirely on the conservative, pro-Russian personnel. That was due to their education, previously occurred in the Soviet Union, played a significant role on how they run their regime. Communist Party that rules Vietnam today bears its attitude from the Soviet Union, albeit from Leninist teachings, after Ho Chi Minh, a controversial figure, visit this nation back in 1920. Their sympathy belongs deeply to Russia due to their hatred against the West after the Vietnam War.

Yet, propaganda mouthpieces of the regime have been torn apart by the war Putin waged against Ukraine. While the media ownership in Vietnam is only operated under the authorisation of the Communist Party, effectively making it authoritarian, some of the most popular Vietnamese media has defied censorship, such as VnExpress and Zing News, as well as PLO (stand for Báo Pháp Luật Hồ Chí Minh - Ho Chi Minh Law Newspapers), providing massive criticism on Russia and somewhat moral support to Ukraine. The other media, such as VOV (Voice of Vietnam), Tuổi Trẻ (Young Student Newspapers), Nhân Dân (People's Newspapers), have stayed true to the Communist propaganda about supporting Russian narratives. State TVs like VTV tend to side with Moscow over Kyiv, while VTC, though ambiguous, is entirely on Ukrainian side.

On public opinions, the vast overwhelming Vietnamese have not shown who to support, but a growing portion of Vietnamese people have stopped treating Russia as a friend, rather viewing Russia an aggressor and an invader, which has even been seen in Facebook and YouTube. Their solidarity with Ukraine is witnessed across the internet, another momentum and a blow to the Communist rulers. This sentiment is echoed into rising opposition on Russia's political gamble, especially after Moscow backed Beijing against Vietnam's territorial claims in South China Sea.

The question is more to matter for many Vietnamese: how long will Putin go for Ukraine? The Russian dictator has underlined that Ukraine must be crushed and a puppet government must be established on 2 March 2022 in Kyiv. If Putin's aggression on Ukraine ends in the same day with a win for Putin, this can be a relief for the ruling Communist Party in Vietnam. But if Putin's aggression ends with a failure, Russia's reputation in Vietnam will suffer a huge low - Russia will be hated and despised by many Vietnamese people, many have already compared Russia to China. And moreover, this can be a repercussion to the authoritarian Communist Party in Vietnam for siding with the losing side - either they'll have to change or they will have to bear a burden for allying with Putin.

And there is another reason for the fear. As tensions between Vietnam and China rising over South China Sea and historical territorial disputes. As stated before, Putin's Russia has shown greater solidarity with China and tacitly backed Chinese aggression. Hence, Putin's popularity among Vietnamese, while remains significant, has plummeted and greater support for the United States and allies are witnessed.

That's still too early to assert, but this is probably the moment where Russia lost respect across the globe, even within its old allies except for China. But if the Communist Party continues to play around without fully acknowledging Russian invasion, it will have a lot to pay for.

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