A short preview on the 2022 FIFA World Cup qualification third round in Asia – Matchday 9
Already we have seen how the situation played out, already two teams have booked places in Qatar, and there shall be a potential third, fourth and maybe a fifth to qualify.
Group A
Lebanon vs Syria
This is possible for the first task, as the upcoming opponent for Lebanon is Syria, a team that has been, alongside Iraq, winless after eight games. This is the chance for Lebanon to gain their first-ever home win, already been beaten painfully by Iran, South Korea, the UAE before only won a point after facing Iraq. While the H2H is not totally favourable, with just five wins out of 24 meetings, the Lebanese have been undefeated against Syria since 2013 (3W, 1D).
With Vietnam's 3-1 triumph over China in the other group, Syria is now, alongside Iraq, left into the situation of being winless, and has been dumped into bottom place without a single win out of eight. No longer carrying the fighting spirit like before, the Qasioun Eagles have been just the shadow of its former self, being the first team to be eliminated in the group.
To make it worse, Syria will pay a visit to Lebanon, an opponent no longer easy to bully anymore. The recent H2H meeting, which Syria lost 2-3, played a crucial part in denying Syria from reaching the World Cup yet again. Certainly, the only work for the new coach Ghassan Maatouk, who replaced the Romanian tactician Valeriu Tița, is to find the missing pieces and rebuild the Syrian side for the upcoming 2023 AFC Asian Cup held in China, probably a better mission given Syria has not progressed from the group stage, to break Syria's own Scottish curse.
With Lebanon's lead captain Hassan Maatouk suffered a blowing injury, all hope for Lebanon now lies on Hilal El-Helwe, who scored nine goals for the Cedars. Meanwhile, in Syrian side, with Omar Kharbin and Omar Al Somah left out, Mardik Mardikian will lead the charge on Syria's quest to win their first-ever game in the 2022 WCQ.
Trivia: goal average in Syria's games throughout the 2022 campaign was so far, less impressive, with just 1.25 compared to the previous WCQ of 1.5 ratio.
Iraq vs United Arab Emirates
Iraq's eight winless games in the Final Round (5D, 3L) made this WCQ Final Round the worst in Iraqi football history, as now Iraq has only two games to turn the table. While Iraq has never returned to World Cup since its only debut in Mexico 1986, it has to at least win two games in these campaign while hoping Lebanon to fail.
Not this time though, as the Iraqis have struggled so far in scoring at important moments. The inconsistent display of Iraq in the 2022 WCQ is something deeply appalling to the Iraqi supporters, who wished to see a more capable, physically tough Iraqi team. Facing with such a mountain to climb, the only hope for Iraq is to win two remaining games, both are against opponents that not so strange to Iraq at all, only if the Iraqis know where they stand, at least if Lebanon could only draw.
Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates have shown some signs of progression, with two wins in a row, only to be blown away by Iran 0-1. Nonetheless, third place is probably what the Emiratis could expect for, with nine points as gains.
New coach Rodolfo Arrambuena truly has a lot of issues to deal with. The Argentine, who replaced the Dutchman van Marwijk, will need to figure how to handle against the arch-rival of the Gulf, Iraq, if the UAE wants to materialise, while at the same time expecting Syria to deliver the fatal blow against Lebanon, with the final opponent for the Emiratis are the South Koreans, definitely not as what they wanted. The UAE surely will need to hold the nerve against a hungry Iraqis that searching for the first win, or everything will be u-turned.
Iraq's coach Abdul Ghani-Shahad will be pleased with the performance of Iraq's Peter Crouch, Aymen Hussein, who scored a goal in Iraq's 3-1 win over Zambia. The UAE is likely to expect from Ali Mabkhout, who is the top scorer for his country and also the UAE's only high quality striker for now.
Trivia: since 1979, every affair between these two is tightly decided, with only one to two goals separating.
South Korea vs Iran
What should have been a game of survival has turned into a game only for pride, with both already booked tickets to Qatar. Therefore, this showdown between South Korea and Iran is likely to be the game for experiments, though the South Korea's boss Paulo Bento didn't think so.
After a slow start, the Koreans truly get its engine right, with South Korea running riots as the only undefeated team in the WCQ after Saudi Arabia blew its way wrong in the other group. The only undefeated team in the WCQ of Asia will probably look to beat Iran for the first time since 2011 (D3, L4) as the way to end its depressing record against Iran.
Iran, at the same time, had also seen itself on the right track. Undefeated under the Croatian boss Dragan Skočić, the Iranians are really holding prestige. Their upcoming trip to Seoul will mean for Iran to see some new seeds.
If anything can motivate them in Seoul, then Iran will try to hold the first place, though falling to second will do little matter.
In what should be an important-turned unimportant meeting, South Korea brings Son Heung-min in order to give the charge for the Taegeuk Warriors. Iran will be happy to have some veterans to play for pride, one such person will be Kamal Kamyabinia, who has just made six appearances for the side.
Trivia: every contest between South Korea and Iran since 2000s always end with just a single goal margin or draw.
Group B
Australia vs Japan
The disastrous 2-2 away draw to Oman, while effectively knocked out Oman from the run, had also put Australia into a severe disadvantage, as now Australia has to win the remaining two last games to put itself into the World Cup in Qatar, true to its current roller-coaster performance, as playoffs meant Australia has to face two games, the final being against a South American opponent, something the Aussies definitely dislike to take over due to previous traumas.
Such mission is easier said than done, when the Aussies will have to face up the Asian giant Japan at home. Australia last won against the opponent in 2009 (D3, L4), when their squad featured some of Asia's mightiest players like Harry Kewell, Tim Cahill and Mark Bresciano. Considering the current squad quality of Australia no longer has the same amount of players like that, it is very difficult to understand how will Australia fare out. Unsurprisingly, the current coach of Australia, Graham Arnold, was accused of letting the situation out of control, and demand to sack Arnie has grown only stronger among frustrated Socceroos' fans.
The Japanese halted Saudi hope to book a place in Qatar early by an emotional 2-0 win at home, and will visit Australia with a huge confidence. Although Japan has never beaten Australia in Down Under since the latter's move to the AFC (D3, L1), many of these Japanese draws tend to piss the Socceroos into deeper troubles. This is likely to be repeated again by Hajime Moriyasu to piss off the Australians, who are now being coerced into only winning path.
However, Japan will have to face a different path, as they will travel to Sydney, the city they have football just once (in 2000 Olympics in Sydney, Japan played all four games outside the city). Sydney is well known for its passionate fan base and this environment can present a major issue to Samurai Blue. It's worth noting that Japan experienced one of its biggest nightmare back in the 2015 AFC Asian Cup in their only experience, when it was knocked out by the UAE in the quarter-finals on penalty shootout, in Stadium Australia in Sydney, the stadium that will be scheduled for the heated fixture. Obviously, if being overconfident and arrogant, Japan is likely to suffer another blow.
In order to survive the nightmare, Australia has no choice but to call some of its important new young hopes to break the Japanese curse, one such player is Nicholas D'Agostino, who scored the decisive goal for the U-23 side to qualify for Olympics 2020 in Japan. Meanwhile, Junya Ito, who brought down Saudi Arabia in Saitama, is going to make headline for Japan's quest to go for a seventh World Cup appearance.
Trivia: every affair between Australia and Japan since the former's admission to the AFC has been mostly tight with a goal average below 0.25.
Vietnam vs Oman
Vietnam welcomed its Lunar New Year's Eve on 1 February with an emotional 3-1 triumph over its problematic giant neighbour China, making a historic feat as the first team from Southeast Asia to claim a win in the WCQ Final Round, something Thailand could not do despite participating in two WCQ Final Rounds earlier before (6D, 12L). Whilst Vietnam's first three points proved to be meaningless as Vietnam was the first to be eliminated from the campaign, this is likely to boost the morale of the Vietnamese, as they successfully knocked out China from the run as well.
Indeed, Park Hang-seo has already hinted that he will not be afraid of demonstrating the aggressive display, with some of his best men likely to return to the game, the Vietnamese also enjoy a strong support in home soil. Excluding Asia's big five (Japan, Australia, South Korea, Saudi Arabia and Iran) who are too strong for them, under the Korean manager, Vietnam has never lost a single home game when facing teams from outside the big five.
This means the test is already there for Branko Ivanković's Oman, whose team was also out of the contention despite the brave 2-2 fight back draw over Australia at home soil to maintain a balance record against the stagnating giant. As the Omanis have only played in Southeast Asia against Myanmar, Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia, Vietnam is a pretty much interesting prospect for the Croatian and his Omani students.
Few years before he accepted the offer to coach Oman, Branko was also linked to Vietnam's job, but later declined due to being unable to settle the salary count. Now, as coach of Oman, he greatly improved the team's form, even though Oman has been unable to qualify for the edition in Qatar. With nothing left to play for but pride, Oman is likely to test its squad for the upcoming fixture in Hanoi, already claimed three wins out of three previous meeting, including the recent H2H in WCQ. Therefore, probably the Croatian would not need to worry about the result, rather to experiment and to prepare a squad for the upcoming 2023 AFC Asian Cup in China.
Vietnam has been ravaged by injuries and COVID-19 infects, but Park Hang-seo's best men are still intact. One of his players ready for that clash is Đỗ Hùng Dũng, who was named as Vietnam's new captain and had an astonishing performance that gave Vietnam a historic three points against China. Oman, also suffering similar issues, will have Abdullah Fawaz, who netted twice as Oman fought back to salvage an important, though meaningless, 2-2 draw over Australia that confirmed Oman's elimination.
Trivia: Vietnam's record against Middle Eastern opponents frequently varies between one to five goals, a high ratio for these thrillers.
China vs Saudi Arabia
The blasting 1-3 away defeat to the Vietnamese on Lunar New Year (a major Chinese festival) in February effectively condemned China from ever qualifying to Qatar, with the upcoming fixtures in March are nothing but for pride of the most populous country in the world. Since the only appearance in 2002 edition held in neighbouring Japan and South Korea, China has failed to gain the needed momentum to dream for a return.
Li Xiaopeng's side will have some courage this time though, China has mostly had positive records in its final two games since 2006 WCQ when being underestimated (6W, 2L). China has also never lost to its upcoming opponent, Saudi Arabia, in every WCQ when China is the host, though they will have to play in Sharjah, with its only game at home was a win in 1997 when China cruised past Saudi Arabia 1-0, though the latter eventually qualified for France 1998 while China had to wait four years later. China may fight only for pride, but surely not without winning.
The crashing defeat to Japan away was somewhat relieved when its potential rival, Australia, dropped in a shock draw away to Oman, allowing Saudi Arabia to maintain the lead. With now Australia and Japan have to collide with each other, Hervé Renard can think about helping Saudi Arabia to qualify for Qatar.
While the Saudis have been dominated by the Chinese in most of the WCQs (1W, 1D, 4L), it can feel uplifted in the case if the host doesn't show any determination. However, there is something the Saudis will be wary about China's positive last ditch efforts above, these last ditch efforts by China could be a threat to Saudi Arabia's dream to qualify for the World Cup if they treat these games like friendlies, as it has already caused menace and even sacking of managers for several teams in the past.
Li Xiaopeng's China has dropped key players like Wu Lei, Li Ke and Wei Shihao, will have the emerging star Dai Weijun in the lead as the Hong Kong-born player impressed in China's defeat to Vietnam. Renard's Saudi Arabia will get Abdulrahman Ghareeb, the 24 years old has also emerged as a promising prospect of Saudi football school.
Trivia: the defeat against Japan was the first time since 2019 that Saudi Arabia has conceded two goals without winning, when they drew Yemen in the same WCQ (2-2), ironically the first game of Frenchman Renard as coach of Saudi Arabia.
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