Amidst the ongoing Ukrainian-Russian war, China staged a military drill near the Vietnamese sea. Why?

A day before, as the world is being distracted by the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, China announced a surprising military drill only at late minutes. While these actions implied the politeness of the Chinese state, the territory it took place for the drill located very near Vietnamese territory - in fact, it was close to two Vietnamese cities, Huế and Đà Nẵng and only further a bit from the city of Sanya in Hainan island - which is the home to an important Chinese naval base. The drill will last until 15 March.

Location of China's naval drill according from Google Vietnam.

With the drill ongoing and the area is forbidden, one questions to ask: what does China plan for?

Vietnam as a favourite target?

Fellow communist Vietnam can be the reason why China feels it could exercise its influence in the neighbour. As far as 2014, reports about China manning military exercises were well-known and the favourite target for China is actually not anyone else - it is Vietnam that it aimed for the most. A report in 2019 by Derek Grossman confirmed that claim.

These reasons are underlined. First, Vietnam enhances a wretched policy called Three Nos - forbidding Vietnam from: entering a military alliance, allowing another nation to set up its base in Vietnamese soil and allying with another nation attacking another nation. Vietnam doesn't have American support and as such, the country has been made a legit marking point for the Chinese to aim for. Only now, Vietnam has embarked in a recent military modernisation, but it is not clear how far will this modernisation go as it has been a bit slow.

Second, the last time China fought Vietnam in a major war was in 1979 and a series of border skirmishes until 1990 added the fuel of the old, 2,000 years old historical rivalry. China is different today, though - it has been far more modernised and better armed, better prepared and better trained than before, so the Chinese are determined to fight again to get rid of Vietnam once and for all. It has a far larger navy and greater troop movement, which can function its goals.

Third, despite old and long rivalry, fighting Vietnam is still a preferable option - geography tells it all. China, to invade India and fight other South Asian nations, requires a very strong military presence in the mountainous Himalaya, and that's very difficult to imagine due to India's readiness. Attacking Central Asia (Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan) is a much easier choice because of the flatter terrain, but as long as Russia still stationing troops, it has nothing to bother since Beijing and Moscow are allies. Invading Myanmar and Laos are not preferable because of geographical isolation similar to India, and also, the current Myanmar junta is allied with China. China can also invade Korea, at least South Korea, but this will bring American troops into the war - a similar issue if China invades Taiwan, Thailand and the Philippines - and they are both American allies. Invading Malaysia can also bring problem - though there is no American troop stationing in Malaysia, it has defence treaties with America and allies. Vietnam's reliance on Russian arms won't guarantee Russian support, as Moscow is slowly abandoning Hanoi and even supported China tacitly in the current South China Sea disputes.

Nothing to say so far, the Vietnamese would have to rely most on itself, which means China can believe about an easy war. Or maybe China thinks so.

There is change among the Vietnamese leadership about its unpopular policy

However, China didn't predict that there is a signal about change among Vietnamese rulers about a new policy.

First, while it is hard to believe that the policy would ever stray from that of Three Nos (there were even attempts to upgrade to "Four Nos"), the policy has now developed a new hint: Vietnam could join  a potential military alliance in the case the country could be attacked. This is essentially, a slow straying from the indigenous Three Nos, could have a major impact. To complicate the matter for China, Vietnam has been seeking to enhance ties with South Korea, Japan, India and Australia - both also have tit-for-tat conflict with Beijing. In a short matter discussion, China has pushed Vietnam to this point.

Second, the lack of appreciation for Three Nos has sustained among several portion of Vietnamese. Despite consistent state media proclamation about Three Nos, the policy doesn't appear to help deter Chinese aggression at all. Probably, the Vietnamese government expected the policy to be similar to Finland's renowned Paasikivi-Kekkonen doctrine (invented by Juho Paasikivi and Urho Kekkonen, Finnish Presidents during the Cold War to deter the Soviet Union), but Vietnam's lack of major soft power and endemic state corruption are stark contrast to Finland's successful transformation via its active neutral policy. This probably has derailed many Vietnamese hopes about an active neutral diplomacy to fend off Chinese threat - and led to Vietnamese rulers to rethink twice about Three Nos - a reason why it has added a special clause in 2019 White Defence Paper.

Third, the magnitude of American involvement is increasing. With the establishment of QUAD (comprising the United States, India, Australia and Japan), Vietnam has been considered as a growing pillar in American attempt to contain Chinese imperialism. Economically, Vietnam has grown a lot since 1986 reforms, but it is the long coastline that provide Vietnam a decent degree of control over various islands throughout Spratlys (much of Vietnamese control of Paracels have been lost to China back in 1974). But more importantly, Vietnam's military history valued much for the United States - despite being old adversaries, Vietnam has more hatred toward China than America.

Fourth, territorial complexity made the Chinese attempt to subjugate Vietnam difficult. Vietnam is not flat like Ukraine, and this makes war difficult to materialise. The Chinese know well about this. Currently, the only way to invade Vietnam has to be using its naval force to land on, as Vietnam doesn't have a strong navy. But it appears to be changing - Vietnam has begun to send its naval force to exercise abroad, combining with growing land force caution. Already in 2010, the United States Navy had provided Vietnamese Navy training and joint battle drills. From 2016 onward, Vietnam has begun to flex its muscles, going as far as doing drills and exercises of real warfare with its partners India, fellow ASEAN members and Japan. Recently, Vietnamese ships have also appeared in a joint-exercise MILAN with India. It has also had a defence agreement with South Korea, as well as growing cooperation with Australia, also its former foes in the Vietnam War, to gear ready for war with China.

What does China want from the drill?

One thing to be sure: China won't invade Vietnam throughout the drill. Not in near future.

But China must have been aware about the situation in Ukraine and it is searching for an opponent that could be equivalent enough to fight. Vietnam is on China's hit list, since the country is the toughest enemy in Southeast Asia. Invading Taiwan has also been put to the table, but considering Taiwan's economic and geostrategic importance for the Americans, this would have a massive impact.

This is not wrong here - the situation of Russia is a warning, clear one. Despite Putin's confidence about his war machine in Ukraine would go on with successes, the reality has been less promising - Russian advance stalled, its troops suffered from low morale and poor perpetration. The Russian dictator's miscalculation also came with a cost - its economy crumbled by severe sanctions and isolation. Now going pariah, Putin's Russia could only rely on Chinese system and some of its friends in Asia, Africa and Latin America to survive. In some way, Russia has already become a prison.

Chinese economy is far more diverse and internationally connected, and it has more obligation to claim stability. A war, regardless against Taiwan or Vietnam, won't be its main. It would persuade a more diplomatic mean to achieve the goals rather than using force. However, China doesn't renounce its military use, and reserved it for a potential war. Rising nationalist sentiment inside Zhongnanhai is a stark warning for the world about it - and the Russian invasion of Ukraine only served as the mean to guide China to prepare for a total war concept.

A grave memory for many Vietnamese is that the Chinese espionage has increased across Southeast Asia. In 2021, Vietnam is one of the three most hit by Chinese espionage missions in the region, the others being Malaysia and Indonesia. The Philippines and Thailand followed as well. The espionage actions by Chinese spies are not new, but it also revealed China's determination to influence the outcome on its side before resorting to lethal actions

So, the one-week naval drill sends a clear, strong message from China: we don't use lethal mean on you now, but we will wait next time. And it is aiming directly to Vietnam.