How Putin adapted, and distorted, Alexander Dugin's favourite political playbook?
In 1997, a book was published with the support within the Russian Ministry of Defence. This book was written by Alexander Dugin, a neo-fascist and ultranationalist Russian, whose worldview has been skewed and one-sided at best. But his book has become one of the best sellers within Russia and it has become the powerful tool of Russian military and political education that would go on to dominate the Russian government for next decades. That book? Foundations of Geopolitics.
The book, written by Dugin, underlined one thing: alliances and annexation. In Dugin's argument, Russia's future has to be dictated in the hand of strongman, and to rout out every kind of American and British influence. He also called for Europe to be settled under Russian term, meaning Finlandisation, while encouraged, at least, the regimes of Turkey, Iran and China to be freed of doing actions as long as they don't antagonise Russia. To make the explanation short: Dugin encouraged Russia to take firmer actions, rewrite borders and reshape history for Russia's future.
The book is also read by one man: Vladimir Putin. Before becoming Prime Minister of Russia in 1999, he was in nowhere except for some small position within the government. Putin, in just a short time, became an addicted follower of Dugin's neo-imperialist dream shortly after the book was published, and the Russian leader became more and more eager to repeat what Dugin wanted to achieve.
However, while Dugin's book has been more infamously interested in building imperialist dream based on the use of a variety of axis, Putin has revised Dugin's book for his grand ambitions, with a different development. How different it is, though, has become a grim reality: it is actually moving toward rebuilding the Russian Empire.
The original Dugin's expansionist idea
Alexander Dugin, in his book, began with the idea of routing out American and British influence. He regarded the United States as the biggest threat to Russia and must be curtailed.
Dugin's viewpoint first touted to Europe, where organisations like NATO and European Union exist. According from Dugin, countries like Finland, Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine have no strategic value and must be absorbed to Russia for good. Meanwhile, he provoked that Estonia should be annexed by Germany, while Lithuania and Latvia must not be granted independence but acted as vassal states for Moscow. The same status could also be given for Poland, a paranoid historical enemy of Russia. Dugin also sought to provoke governments of France and Germany to "rebel" against the United States and Britain. The Balkans will have to be re-formed as a province of Russia due to common Orthodox belief.
Then, he touted to Middle East and Caucasus. Dugin viewed Iran a potential ally and an Iranian-Russian axis must be established. He believed that Iran must be allowed to expand its empire to colonise the Arabian Peninsula. Turkey needs to be dismembered by using Kurds and Armenians, but if Turkey doesn't dismember itself, Turkey must also expand southward, as long as it does not clash with Iranian interests. Armenia, based on historical ties with Russia, will be given a special treatment as an ally, while Azerbaijan and Georgia need to be erased from the map.
He also touted to Central Asia and East, South and Southeast Asia. He saw Central Asia as an inseparable part of Russia. Toward Japan, he did not trust Japan but believed that Japan should be provided as a member of Moscow-Tokyo axis to provoke anti-Americanism and by giving the Kurils islands to Japan for some economic goods. This axis is an important part of Dugin's book because Dugin considered China a similar threat level to that of the United States. To curtail China, Dugin argued Russia must dismember China into smaller states, while in compensation, China would be allowed to expand southward and colonise South and Southeast Asia, except for India and Vietnam due to political reasons.
Finally, he looked at the U.S. with disdain. He sought to undermine the United States by provoking racial unrest, political marginalisation and isolationist figures to destroy the States.
Moreover, Dugin didn't believe about the use of military force unless it was the last resort. Military force would play only a minimal role, in order to create a new, Eurasian world. It would be economic and political manipulation.
How Putin absorbed and distorted Dugin's idea?
Similarities
Like Dugin, Putin shared a common Eurasian ideological viewpoint. On his opinion, Ukraine and Georgia are not real countries. This really played out: Putin launched two bloody, inhuman invasions of Georgia and Ukraine, in 2008 and 2022. Both these invasions were brutal and destructive, with the current invasion of Ukraine superseded past Russian conquest in Chechnya or its bombardment in Syria. Also, he channelled right-wing political groups in Western Europe that are anti-American, strongest being in France and Germany.
Putin also succeeded, a bit, in using natural resources as weapons to take Europe hostage. With the money his country produced, he succeeded in making propaganda and manipulation. All for one aim: to make NATO weaker, and European Union weaker to the point no longer exist. The Balkans have also become Putin's playground, where he supported and maximised the idea of Orthodox Christianity and Third Rome.
Putin has also used the Middle East for his playground, using his ally Iran to weaponise Russian power. Encouraged by Russia, Iran has launched savage proxy wars in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, to isolate Saudi Arabia and its allies, the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf. Putin also sought to manipulate Turkey, arming the Kurdish rebels and recognised the Armenian genocide, but at the same time, trying to encouraging the Turks to foment chaos in the Middle East and North Africa for the Ottoman quest. Saudi Arabia, despite attempts to please Russia in recent years, has achieved little success.
Putin also gains strong control in Central Asia, notably by his intervention to Kazakhstan under the request of the Kazakhstani government of President Kassim Tokayev., as well as actively supporting China's southward expansion.
Also, Putin actively used and promoted right-wing nationalists and Afro-American groups to undermine the United States. He also used political crisis between the Democrats and Republicans, supporting the GOP with its candidate Donald Trump in 2016, who went on play in the tune of Putin. And like Dugin, Putin also promoted Russian power in Latin America.
Differences
There are several differences that set Putin apart from his Russian teacher.
In European situation, Putin, unlike Dugin, views the Baltic nations, Poland and other Central European nations, as inseparable parts of Russia, and very unlikely to give these nations "special status" like that of Dugin's argument. In Dugin's case, giving these countries he found as "paranoid" such a status is a reminder that Russia would only use force if they didn't listen, but not a total annexation, only giving these nations partial independence. The recent survey by Active Group, a Ukrainian non-profit organisation, reviewed this nightmare clearly of nearly 90% Russians want war against other neighbours, which is more Putinist than Duginist.
Moreover, Putin's treatment toward the rest of Europe is much to debate. Putin viewed France and Germany as unhappy with America, but not compromising enough to support Russia, thus he ruled out all kind of cooperation with Paris and Berlin.
In East Asia-Pacific case, Putin doesn't share a similar view with Dugin about China. Dugin argued China as a menace that must be broken up, but Putin considered China as a partner and an ally with a similar anti-Western grievance that could also be used for the future war against the United States, hence a Moscow-Beijing axis. It was understandable because of time gap - the book was published in 1997, two years before the bombing of Chinese embassy in Belgrade.
Also in Asia-Pacific, Putin differs from Dugin in how Asian states should be seen. Dugin viewed India and Vietnam need to be given a special status due to relations with Russia in the past. Putin didn't share the same view, as seen with the recent Russian invasion, the Russian despot had rebuffed every peace offer from India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi to continue his expansionist war; at the same time Putin began to engage closely with Pakistan, an arch-rival of India, while voicing no support for India when conflicts with China occurred. Meanwhile, despite being the main supplier of weapons for Vietnam, Putin has tacitly supported China against Vietnam in South China Sea, even going as far as suggesting Vietnam to accept Chinese terms.
In the Middle East, Putin also differs from Dugin. Dugin views Turkey and Arab monarchies in the Persian Gulf as worthless and fake nations, and that Iran is the future of Moscow. Putin carries a somewhat similar opinion, but left out Turkey from the list. Putin also secretly arms Kurdish rebels, but minimised their actions to not antagonise the Turks if Turkey had someone who agreed to Putin's demand. Erdogan served him right just that. Putin does trust Iran, but not entirely, unless Iran stops interfering too far in Russian affairs at the region, as seen with Syria when Putin sometimes questions Iranian troop deployment and has tacitly backed Israeli airstrikes. In a way, rather than fully betting on Iran, Putin expects that Turkey and Iran could divide the Middle East and North Africa before one must fight each other for the domain.
Also, unlike Dugin, Putin appeared to stress more about Africa. Dugin did have an impression about Africa as potential base against the United States, but Dugin could think only just that, as he didn't get the belief about values as he had low expectation. Putin, meanwhile, has hijacked pan-Africanism to promote Russian nationalist interests and present a friendly image of Russia, at least, if this helped Putin to install his future neo-colonial design in Africa for political and economic values.
How will it affect future Asia and Europe?
These differences set away Putin from Dugin and manifested Putin's own ideology. While this divergence may have been due to the current situation, it represented a grave danger for countries on Putin's viewpoint.
Countries that traditionally share close ties with Russia like Israel, India, and Vietnam are now facing a dangerous dilemma. Both have decided to apply strict neutrality while trying to preserve ties with Russia, but it appeared these countries are begging for more and more American involvement as their ties with Russia shaken by Putin's invasion of Ukraine and growing Moscow-Beijing alliance. Those who tend to have grievances against the West like Serbia, Iran and Pakistan, while outside neutral, are likely to cast on Putin's side.
Meanwhile, Russia's invasion has also shaken European nations, prompting these countries to spend more in defence and abruptly put an end to a peaceful era Europe has long sought after World War II. Meanwhile, neutral nations like Austria, Finland and Sweden are also increasingly debating about joining NATO. Switzerland, typically neutral, has also adopted sanctions against Russia.
For various Asian states, some have decided to join the American side, immediate and resolute by actions. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Australia have imposed sanctions against Russia, swiftly. Yet nations like the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bangladesh, which have some nominal ties with the U.S., didn't follow the same path. Despotic governments of North Korea and Myanmar easily chose the Russian side.
And how Africa and Latin America be played?
As Putin followed strictly Dugin's writing, just with some moderation and distortion to suit the current era, Africa and Latin America will be viewed as somewhat fertile battleground for Putin to exploit.
Putin will be likely to increase his involvement in Africa, and he has tried to sow the discord by telling Africans about how Western European colonisers brutalised them. Meanwhile, he also planted the seed of his neo-colonialism by using African naiveness to plot further anti-European projects while also increased frictions between Africans and Asians, as Putin is aware that Asians are also infamous for being racist toward Africans.
Latin America is less likely to be tamed with the similar hatred due to its independence achieved more than 200 years, for most. But since these nations are deeply corrupt and desperate for money, Putin will wedge on trying to manipulate the anti-American sentiment to pump up regimes like Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela or Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua to wreck havoc while at the same time impoverished these Latin American nations.
These actions are likely to be emboldened with Chinese supports, due to China being far stronger both economically and politically, as well as China portrayed itself different from the rest of Asia, like how Russia distanced itself from Europe.
How to deal with Putinist version of Foundations of Geopolitics?
Vladimir Putin's distortion of Foundations of Geopolitics will make it far more dangerous because of Putin's ruthless record and his worldview is dictatorial.
The best way to combat Putin's imperialist plan is to be able to read Putin's gamble and to strike on the ambition with a more powerful deterrence tactic. Putin can only rely on nuclear weapons as his aim, as seen with the current invasion of Ukraine, while Russia does not have the economic muscle. By being more creative and more industrial, the West can supply more and more weapons as well as slowly succeeded in decoupling from Putin's regime, while at the same time, Russia has been incapable of doing the same since it can't entirely rely on China.
Meanwhile, Putin's ambition of forming a new military, economic and political axis has to be curbed from within. For countries that harbours expansionist dream like China, it has to be curtailed with different economic plans that could unleash domestic creativity while retain the use of military deterrence. Countries like Myanmar, Belarus, Serbia, Pakistan, Syria and North Korea could only manage to use nuclear or military deterrence with little economic opportunities, should be crippled without a fight.
Meanwhile, organisations like NATO, QUAD as well as other multinational organisations like EU and ASEAN must step up and integrate its members deeper, while actively projecting new economic corridor to avoid falling to trap like China's debt-trap policy or Russia's gas trap. For instance, Finland, an EU member, has already facilitated the establishment of the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats has been successful in analysing the Russian threat, which is well-received during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, as the Finland-based centre has helped to understand Putin's motivation.
We must derail Putin's new imperialist order. All is just, when? If we continue to concede to Putin and his gang, we will lose the chance to stop the Russian monster from enabling other monsters in China, North Korea, Iran or Belarus from going the same mistakes. And this is not a joke - it is a must!
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