Saudi Arabia is trying to ditch the United States in favour of getting Russian and Chinese support - but by doing so, Riyadh has let itself played by Iran

Recent reports from various media outlets indicated that growing dissatisfaction toward the Joe Biden Administration among the Saudi government of the young Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman has led the Crown Prince to shun the U.S. President. This is extremely relevant when Putin's Russia waged an invasion on Ukraine, when the Crown Prince, by a shock move, ghosted Biden but responded to a call by the Russian dictator. Riyadh has demonstrated clearly that it will not respond to any American attempt calling for help unless the United States realigned its policy to Saudi interests, and to further enhance the economic threat, Saudi Arabia has even extended its invitation to Chinese leader Xi Jinping to visit the country and moving toward using Chinese yuan in foreign trade exchange instead of U.S. dollar. President Biden could only make calls with the Crown Prince's father, King Salman.

Yet the move of MBS could not come at the time when everything is not in favour of the Crown Prince. His peace talks with Iran have been recently suspended by the Iranian government, with Iran giving no explanation about its decision. His economic reform plan, the Vision 2030, has come to a halt. His political gamble toward the Republican Party has been ruined recently due to Republican-Russian connection. Meanwhile, Russia and China, while far from being hostile to Saudi Arabia, have shown no sign that they will cease support for Saudi Arabia's adversary Iran sooner or later.

Saudi Arabia is still a very young kingdom if you count its history of existence. Founded in 1932 by Ibn Saud, his rule was passed by every of his son ever since his death. The young kingdom enjoyed a significant leverage in the world's stage for one thing: oil. The vast oil reserves it obtained allowed the kingdom sustain its place as a powerful petrostate, while providing oil for the West and its Asian allies. The Kingdom itself has also been represented as the beacon of stability in a volatile region and, for once, forming a pillar, the other with Iran, in keeping the Persian Gulf safe.

This changed in 1979 when the Iranian monarchy was toppled and a hawkish Islamic regime established. The new Iranian regime has turned Iran into a hostile pariah state while pouring billions of dollar spreading its ambitious expansions with various puppet groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Alawite regime in Syria and recently, the Houthis, in Yemen, gathering influence there by proxies. Because of this, the United States has to entrust the security guarantee to Riyadh as Saudi Arabia is the host of Mecca and Medina.

However, the last ten years saw the United States is no longer the potential partner Riyadh can rely on while coinciding with the growing leadership of Mohammed Bin Salman. A resurgence Russia and a China that has increasingly become powerful could also be the way for the Saudi monarchy to enhance ties while trying to reduce dependency from the United States. Moreover, as the United States tried to engage in a nuclear talk, which culminated into a successful 2015 deal with Iran, Saudi Arabia has been paranoid about it. This helped Riyadh to get its motivation of supporting Donald Trump in the 2016 elections, which was achieved and Riyadh could not be happier when Trump tore down the deal in 2018. Trump's unconditional support for Saudi Arabia also follows with Riyadh's war in Yemen that started in 2015, in which the Kingdom bombarded civilians equally to their Houthi enemies. Riyadh has also downplayed the Trump coup in January 2021, probably disgruntled with the defeat of the Republicans. And now, when Biden shows he does not want to be stuck with Riyadh's mindset, Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince has acted like he had lost jewelry holdings.

But by prioritising selfish interests, Riyadh has made a string of strategic mistakes that is likely to undo everything it gained.

First, it has miscalculated the Iranian regime's determination. Since 1979, Tehran has made clear that it wanted to export its brand of revolutionary regimes to the other Islamic states, and it will do everything, even if the cost would be the Iranian people suffering starvation. For the mullahs, it is all about expansions. The United States' 2015 nuclear deal is the only option to keep the region in peace and to halt Iran's expansionist regime by seeking to open the eyes of the Iranian mullahs and the Iranian military machine, by then was still inferior and desperate. By shunning the nuclear deal, Riyadh has ruined its hope to get peace with Tehran and effectively crippled any peace talks later on. This is best seen by recent Iranian suspension of peace talks with Saudi Arabia - Tehran has learnt the hard pain of the old nuclear deal and will not be entitled for any peace making efforts without gaining the upperhand or even destroying the kingdom, it has played Riyadh by engaging in both diplomatic peace talks while encouraging Hezbollah and Houthis to destabilise Saudi backyards.

Second, Riyadh has failed to secure enough Russian and Chinese supports to deter Iran, if not saying, a total failure. It is fairly understandable that Moscow and Beijing have been Islamic Iran's lifeline for a long time, so Riyadh sought to make a Nixon moment, strengthening ties with the likes of Russia and China. Unfortunately, having learnt the hard Nixon moment that broke up the Soviet Union, neither Russia or China will give up their support for Iran, even though they still prefer to keep face-to-face meeting with Saudi officials. Anyone familiar with Alexander Dugin's 1997 book Foundation of Geopolitics, will understand this aspect: Russia must arm Iran to pacify the Middle East, before giving it to the Empire of Iran. In Dugin's work, Saudi Arabia is not an independent country, its Wahhabist ideology is the problem that must be curtailed. Putin is an ardent follower of Dugin since 2000s and has been repeating the game, but with modification and moderation to cope with the 21st century gamble, thus this time Russia and China will actively lay a ground to seed Iran's expansionist adventure. Why does Saudi Arabia try to unhear this then go appeasing Putin and Xi is astonishing, as the country is not even seen as a real nation by Moscow and Beijing.

The Iranian regime captured just that. Securing enough Chinese and Russian backing will be enough. Meanwhile, Tehran is well-informed - Riyadh's desperation to be buddy with Moscow and Beijing won't bring anything. China and Russia see Saudi Arabia as an artificial country with oil only, and won't bring any values for them. That's why China continues to trade with Iran, while Russia keeps selling weapons for various Iranian proxies, undermining Saudi hopes to get in bed with these nations.

Now Riyadh has only begun to see the price of hopeless bid for making Russia and China allies - rather than bringing desirable results, Iran has become more and more aggressive than ever, while Russia and China give no damn on Iran's attacks on Saudi Arabia and her allies like the United Arab Emirates, Jordan and Bahrain. Meanwhile, economic benefits Riyadh expected from Beijing's investment and weapon trades with Russia have not been materialised, though it is too early to tell how Riyadh's pivoting would go on.

That does not mean Riyadh cannot make their own independence diplomacy, if this is necessary to build healthier ties, and no one should oppose Saudi Arabia from doing business with China and Russia. But it appears Saudi's Nixon blitzkrieg has come to nowhere. This put us a final question: how far can Saudi Arabia expect itself as a country, or going to become just another liability?

To make final assumption, since Saudi Arabia is a heavily-censored Kingdom with damning death penalty aka beheading, this means the political makers are from the top, and nothing else. Saudi Arabia's disastrous war in Yemen does not help, but its dangerous rift trying to cultivate favour of Russia and China is another concern. The country is not ready for the change and some limited reforms to inspire people about a liberal state, does not guarantee the country will go the right path. Its goal is to contain Iran, but it is doing the total reverse. Saudi Arabia is being manipulated by an economically weaker but politically insidious Iran, while imperialist regimes in Russia and China are unlikely to heed to Saudi Arabia in exchange for abandoning Iran. Unless there are political coups, Putin and Xi will not be easily fallen to the cake set up by Riyadh, and Riyadh will pay dearly if Iran goes further.