Sri Lanka's time of flirting with China is about to over - and the Rajapaksas are destined for their downfall

Sri Lanka is facing one of the worst economic crisis ever, something unseen in a country once prided itself as the most energetic South Asian nation after the Maldives (and being the only two South Asian nations to be regarded with high human development).

It maybe a bit shocking. Although I am no economist, Sri Lanka was still an impressive country, at least when that comes with my belief about how the country has successfully transformed. With the unravelling protests though, it was no longer be the case.

Of course, one has to be taken to court, and seriously, this is not only for one, but for an entire family that triggered the economic crisis. And that also means, trying to cut off one of China's hand - the Rajapaksa dynasty.

Rajapaksa's awkward alliance with Beijing is actually a recent development. While the Rajapaksas have become involved in politics of the island, old enough before the current Rajapaksa generation, their cooperation with China started in 2000s when Sri Lanka was being ravaged by a civil war between the mainstream government and the Tamil rebel group, LTTE, stood for Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. Previously, India had tried to broker, but Indian involvement had been criticised of doing more damages than helps for Sri Lanka, both by the government and the LTTE.

This, in turn, allowed a hardliner, Mahinda Rajapaksa, to power as President in 2004. Mahinda had promised to completely eradicate the LTTE. Moreover, Mahinda also encouraged engaging closer with China as a replacement to India. When inaugurated the construction of National Theatre of Performing Arts, Mahinda himself pridefully declared: "China and Sri Lanka are long standing friends. China never deserted Sri Lanka in its times of distress".

China also paid favour by providing weapons for the Sri Lankan military to boost its activities against LTTE (though it was also blamed for arming LTTE as well), eventually leading to the former's victory in 2009. This also allowed Beijing to exploit Sri Lanka, politically and economically. Chinese government started to finance the construction of Hanbantota Port in the Indian Ocean, the work began in 2008 - a reason why India and the United States have become concerned in recent years. Of course, Hanbantota is not the only project China meddled on; Chinese state firms also came after with lucrative offers for the island, such as a new container terminal in Colombo, a new airport in Hanbantota (the city where a China-built port was constructed), a flood prevention system, an expressway, to name a few.

Mahinda Rajapaksa, like most of his family members at the time, got a freehand and became extremely adapted on abusing the money China gave her, without even wondering about China's potential debt-trap tactics. Since 2014, Sri Lankan debt has increased rapidly, reaching 42.9% of the country's GDP by year 2019. These public debt was mostly hidden by the Rajapaksas, as they did not want to show that they were culprit in borrowing too much money from China to finance for the robust but weak feet economy.

They succeeded in just that. The new President, Maithripala Sirisena, has been acutely aware about Beijing's debt-trap policy, but he struggled to find a common term with the powerful Rajapaksa family. Meanwhile, his attempt to reduce dependency over China has been undone due to internal debt and trades between the two states. 15% of Sri Lankan imports are from China, showing how far Sri Lanka relied on. Eventually, the Rajapaksas' trap was laid: Sirisena had to fight against his own-appointed Prime Minister, the reluctant opposition leader Ranil Wickremesinghe who formed a coalition government from 2015-19. With the weigh unable to be solved, Ranil resigned and Sirisena had to appoint Mahinda as Prime Minister.

Mahinda was a power-hungry person, and he got the blessings from China because of his staunch pro-Chinese stance. It's noteworthy that Sri Lanka had endorsed China's flagrant aggression against ASEAN countries in South China Sea, Chinese territorial claims in India-controlled regions, as well as supporting China's stance in Taiwan, under Mahinda's government before - hence the massive series of Chinese infrastructure gambles.

Sirisena's reforms went unfinished with the bloody Easter bombing on the island by Islamic State's sympathisers in 2019 and this allowed the Rajapaksas an impetus for a massive political comeback, as the country's promising economy was hurt. Eventually, Sirisena left the Presidency in 2019 with nothing, while Mahinda's brother, Gotabaya, became the next President. Gotabaya went even further than his elder brother, he appointed almost every Rajapaksa into power realm and formed an exclusively family cabinet inside the government.

But, every fun must come to end.

The 2020 COVID-19 pandemic in Sri Lanka began to unravel the economic debt Sri Lanka has been trying to conceal from. At first, Gotabaya did not want to impose a lockdown, but reluctantly did so following immense pressure about potential health breakdown. The first lockdown and response of the government was a success, but it was not to last. Drinking in the victory of the first lockdown, the Rajapaksa government refused to implement the same quarantine plan with the subsequent waves, and the country's hard-won achievement was rolled back. By August 2021, Sri Lanka became the country with the fourth-largest number of daily deaths in the world by population just behind Georgia, Tunisia, and Malaysia.

Meanwhile, the same Sri Lankan government, in a devastating move, imposed a tax cut series since late 2019, which would go on to wipe out 3$ million of its tourist industry. In the mean time, Rajapaksa ordered a massive money printing to confront the dissipation of its outcomes, leading to a massive inflation problem. In the end, unable to confront the soaring prices and deterioration of living standard, the Rajapaksa government tried to salvage its image by implementing a new project called organic farming, with the aim to make Lanka self-sufficient agriculturally. However, by the end of 2021, very few farmers understood the basic of this organic program, plundering the country further to disaster.

Moreover, the wipe out of massive tourist incomes contributed to the grave concern of the country's foreign reserves, as it began to dry up. Without any clear strategy, Gotabaya became reliant toward his family members, and dictated the policies entirely only by the understanding of his family. Increasing deficit has also severely downgraded Sri Lanka's performance, with Fitch and Moody rated the country to CC and Caa1 rating in 2022 - the worst-ever and can make Sri Lanka deeply in further troubles of default.

To rescue the ailing financial system, Gotabaya had, unsurprisingly, picked his pro-Chinese brother Mahinda (also the current Prime Minister and former President) to Beijing urging for China to restructure its debts in January 2022. While China is not the biggest creditor to Sri Lanka, it holds 1/4 of the debt, the remainders are Japan and various international donors, which is quite significant considering how China invested in Sri Lanka and has maintained its financial backing for the Lankan regime. Chinese government had, in the past, responded by giving more than 2$ billion bailout, but not yet answer for the current request of Mahinda. India, its complicated neighbour, has agreed to bailout 900$ million for Lanka's economy. Bangladesh, also from South Asia, provided more than 200$ million aid as part of Dhaka's money swap with Colombo a year earlier. The Rajapaksas are even seeking aids from countries like Iran, Japan and Australia to deal with the crisis.

China sees Sri Lanka as a geostrategic goal to contain India, now part of the QUAD (alongside Australia, Japan and the United States), as such, Beijing prized the opportunities well. The Rajapaksas have, for a long time, allied with Beijing's goals and is one of the staunchest supporters of China's Belt and Road Initiative. Therefore, the Rajapaksas borrowed billions and billions from China, wrongly believing that China would let it go easily. Thus, Sri Lanka walked to the trap China had installed.

Now, with an economy ravaged, Sri Lanka under the false paradise of Chinese promises has gone broken. It has been unable to speak up for its interests or to save its own identity, and a massive public unrest has been ongoing. Will it be just a matter of time for the collapse of an authoritarian family is for us to discuss - but Rajapaksa's demise is a stark reminder: don't be too happy when you got China on your side.