The poor performance of the Russian force in Ukraine and the unreliable Russian hardware are making troubles for the Communist Party in Vietnam

On 29 May 2013, in the port city of Cam Ranh, the Vietnamese People's Armed Forces issued its declaration, establishing the country's first-ever submarine force. The submarine force Vietnam established was part of the country's ongoing modernisation effort, to catch up with its Southeast Asian neighbours that have the same force earlier, and also to deal with the much stronger Chinese submarine force. But while the submarine force was established in 2013, it was not until 15 January 2014, that Vietnam officially received the first submarine. A Kilo-class made.

The Kilo class submarine was built by none other but Russia, the country that Vietnam has a good, old relationship. Vietnam bought the submarine squad in 2009 as part of their contract with Rosoboronoexport, and its future sailors were educated by the Russians. It succeeded just that. By that time, Vietnam had yet to get American lethal arms, due to weapon embargo imposed on her following the Vietnam War.

Fast forward to 2022. Six years after President Obama lifted weapon embargo on Vietnam, Russia is still the largest weapon supplier for the Vietnamese military. Its last submarine was sent to Vietnam in 2017, completed the contract. And there is a likely that the Vietnamese regime may aim to buy more and more sophisticated weapons from Russia, only if this really goes the Russian way.

However, Russia's disastrous invasion of Ukraine since 23 February 2022 had severely hammered the reputation of the Russian Armed Forces, and coincided with the fact that Russian weapons were frequently destroyed in the frontier by Ukraine's cheap but very mobile arms, the status of Russian weapons in Vietnam today has faced a severe question as well: are they really reliable?

Let's try to be frank: Russian military's poor performance in Ukraine has been massively human faults. The Russian despot Vladimir Putin thought the invasion would last in just a few days with a blitzkrieg to Kyiv and that all Ukrainians would welcome Putin's army. It proved to the false, and the war did not go according to Putin. Moreover, because Putin still insisted in his operation as "Special Military Operation", he did not designate any full-time military commander to command the war in Ukraine, contributing to the morale crisis. In desperate, now Putin has turned using mercenaries from Mali, Nigeria, Libya, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Central African Republic and even seeking the same people in China, Pakistan, Myanmar and Afghanistan to continue his criminal record. Already, Russia has lost nearly 10,000 soldiers (Ukraine estimated to be 15,000 while the West estimated only 7,000), which was severely high, even though this loss is just 3% of Russia's total 150,000 soldiers near the border with Ukraine.

Yet, images of Russian equipment, vehicles and trucks demolished stunned observers. The fact that Russian troops showed no sign of coordination had let their very sophisticated equipment burnt to the ground. Combining with high fatalities and losses of equipment, Russian force is now moving to a new phase: digging trench and go attrition war. In Putin's words, "if we can't have Ukraine, nobody can".

A column of Russian tanks destroyed/abandoned in Ukraine.

Anyway, the poor performance of the Russian force is exacerbating the crisis in confidence of Russia among the Vietnamese leadership. While the Hanoi regime has sought to toe to the narratives of the Kremlin (already banned the use of the word "invasion" in state media), it has been unable to go full pro-Russian blitz; instead it also presented concrete Ukrainian view points in order to avoid being seen as siding with Moscow. Much of the younger Vietnamese public, however, is fiercely pro-Ukrainian and they have become less and less sympathetic toward Russia.

But that may not become the matter unless the problem with Russian weapons come to mind. For a long time, Vietnam deeply relies on Russian hardware and over 60% of Vietnamese weapons are from Russia, including its ballistic missile on development. It was these weapons that the Communist Party could justify for its wars against France, the United States, Khmer Rouge, Thailand and China. Even when Russia has no longer had the tantamount of power to supply, Russia still tops as the country with most weapon exports to Vietnam.

Russia's disastrous form in Ukraine and wasteful Russian hardware has been discouraging and may fuel a dangerous feeling among Vietnamese that Russian weapons may not be as effective as it seems. This lesson is still very vivid with the case of Iraq - despite having 90% of Russian weapons at disposal by 2003, Saddam Hussein was still toppled by the United States in 2003 easily. In Syria, during the current civil war, despite Bashar al-Assad's Russian weapons in his bases, the Syrian regime troops proved incompetent and almost lost the war if not for Russian intervention later on.

Of course, Vietnam is not Iraq and Syria. In the case of Iraq and Syria, despotic control led to corruption and mismanagement. Vietnam, while similar in corruption and being run by an authoritarian regime, its military history is deep and very much well-efficient due to constant threats it experienced. Yet the misuse of Russian weapons can also help enhancing view of how corrupt regimes could ruin it - something many Vietnamese have been fearful at. The Communist Party of Vietnam is one of the most corrupt institutions in Asia, with money being plundered while children within the circle enrolled in education abroad.

The threat of China has been growing days by days, nights by nights. Beijing has been very assertive and the Xi Jinping regime has become more and more nationalist, more chauvinistic and more imperialistic than ever. Vietnam has never been treated by the other dictatorships as a friend because of the 1979 war with China: North Korea betrayed her during the Khmer Rouge war, various Sub-Saharan African states gave to damn about Vietnam, while communist Cuba raised support but with limited influence - on the other word, the Communist Party of Vietnam has turned Judas. Yet instead of realising that its Judas status could allow her to apply for some form of helps and to reform itself to be closer to the Western alliance, it has chosen to stick its nose in the disinformation of Moscow and Beijing, trying to cultivate favour from these imperialist regimes, keeping with the disastrous policy of "Three Nos" and even sustaining in buying Russian hardware.

What can really help Vietnam if a potential war with China broke out? Russia will not help - Moscow has signalled that Beijing could takeover South China Sea or Southeast Asia, which means Vietnam won't be protected by Moscow. And who could really repair these Russian hardware if it was damaged? Russia, being under sanctions severely, could do nothing about it and would not spend time aiding such a country so irrelevant today like Vietnam. It can't also expect India either, while New Delhi has close ties with Moscow and does not interfere in the other affairs, India has its own rising military industry and it will have to prioritise itself with the upcoming QUAD alliance against China. Moreover, attempts to get enough training with Russia has yielded little results.

In the end, the Hanoi regime is in a dilemma: it found little trust, but it can't stop berating and toeing with a limited power. At the same time, its attempt to use Russian tools has shown flaws, in which it must choose: either keep sticking with a potential failure, or going ahead with new changes. It has been, for now, looking for Israel, Japan and India to help, but will Vietnam end its dependency on the Russians?

Only time can tell...