To consolidate sea control, land war must be achieved - China's consolidation of islands in South China Sea may implement a potential land war

“Who wishes to fight must first count the cost.” - Sun Tzu.

“No battle was ever won according to plan, but no battle was ever won without one.” - Dwight Eisenhower.

When China has been doing in South China Sea is now seen as "the largest military buildup since the World War II", it can be understood that the Chinese state is planning for a total war.

China's growing efforts to militarise its disputed territories came with no surprise. The Chinese are watching the war in Ukraine, where its ally, Vladimir Putin's Russia, has waged against since 23 February. Initially, Beijing expected Russia would make a swift blitzkrieg to conquer Ukraine, taking Kyiv with little bloodshed. One another thing for China to watch the Russian invasion was, if it could help the United States feel distracted and would halt its pivot to Asia, China could enhance its power in Asia. A Russian victory would've been even more to celebrate for China, if it could have really happened.

However, the Russian dictator has failed to anticipate the fierce resistance of Ukrainians, muddy season ongoing and mounting casualties have put a strain to Russia's war resources. Of course, by far, the Russians have just deployed only 10% of its force in Ukraine, but Russian troops' poor performance has caused to a massive purge under the Russian autocrat. The casualties of Russia remain to be seen with contradicted accounts: Ukraine claimed more than 14,000 Russian troops killed, including many high-ranking Russian generals, some are of Chechen ethnicity, while the West estimated a little lower, only 7,000 casualties. The Kremlin refused to completely disclose the information, out of fear that it could demoralise the so-called "special military operation".

Nonetheless, Putin has demonstrated what Xi Jinping definitely wants to follow: a powerful strongman with a strong will. The desire to escalate for total destruction to achieve the final goals serves that image Xi is emulating. Despite economic sanctions that severely crippled the Russian economy and its financial bankruptcy threat looming, Putin appears showing no remorse about it: he even held a nationalist rally in Luzhniki Stadium, the stadium where France and Croatia played the 2018 FIFA World Cup Final and openly threatened for a full-blown war against NATO if it decides to take part in the conflict in Ukraine. Putin has rejected every kind of international institution and downplays the severity of economic sanctions and crisis in his totalitarian state as long as his war in Ukraine is underway. Also, he used the war in Ukraine to keep 200 million Russians in darkness, by cracking down every independent outlet.

Putin's brutal tactics toward Ukraine has also gathered significant home support, although at which level remains questionable due to Putin's censorship means no independent, non-biased poll was held. Ukraine's Active Group has conducted a secret survey in Russia, unveiling a frightening response: nearly 90% of Russians want Russia to take actions against another European country, which Poland is likely the next target, over 75% Russians want Poland the next victim.

The Russian despot's stalled war in Ukraine has helped China a lot in understanding how a war in Asia could be. Unlike Europe, Asia is vastly different: it has more islands and island-states, many of high mountains which differed from a pretty flat Europe, plenty of deserts and wet valleys standing on the way, as well as the vast distance between countries and countries require a massive military manuover, and this is something Beijing has been trying to address. Recent border conflicts with India unveiled much of the challenge: Chinese troops had suffered higher casualties than its Indian rivals despite media distortion by China initially portrayed itself suffering zero casualties, and Chinese attempts to facilitate greater transportation into Tibet has not reaped any benefits for Beijing. While it was not clear why China hid these casualties, China's poor manuovering in this Galwan clash was to blame for, many occurred in unnecessary conditions prior to the gun battle. China, unlike India, has a clear edge of terrain due to its control of Tibet, which China has forcibly annexed in 1950, yet Chinese troops failed to build from the same advantage and could not stem from it, as seen with the recent Galwan fighting.

This short battle in Galwan, still, could put a fingerprint on China's attempts to strengthen its military force. The People's Liberation Army is the largest military force in the world and its modernisation has been at rapid pace. This is also been aided by the deployment of China's hypersonic missiles, which, alongside with Russia, granting them a clear edge against the United States, which has just only begun to get some successes at the same weapon following several failed tests.

Fortifying islands in South China Sea is one of the step to consolidate China's control, but islands are not so easy to keep. Let's remember, building artificial islands do not mean you can be protected from the wrath of mother nature of outside bombings, because reinforcement to islands require a lot of times and coordinated work. This is not a welcoming new, as China's man-made islands have shown to be of poor quality. Having the power in the sea does not guarantee your protection if you are being surrounded by hostile neighbours. Therefore, preparing for a large scale land assault has always been placed on the table.

The World War II's Pacific Front explicitly explained why maintaining land control is important. While Japanese reliant toward the use of navy was well-known due to geographical location, the Japanese had also undertaken several, if not saying massive land operations, to conquer China and Southeast Asia, which was essential for Japan to gather control and accession to war resources and to continue its campaign. The conquest of Southeast Asia and Eastern China helped Japan to ease its pressure and could focus on making its moves toward against the United States and its allies Australia and New Zealand, at least before the tie turned against since 1943.

Without a doubt, China's perpetration for war is growingly real. A few weeks ago, using the pretext of searching for a crashing plane, China authorised a massive military drill overlapping Vietnam's EEZ, strained the already difficult relations between two communist states (war was fought between them in 1979) - a continuation of military buildup China has been doing in South China Sea. China also adds further activities by frequently flying fighters across Taiwan's ADIZ and militarising the border with Vietnam by sending more soldiers and installed a missile base.

Of course, let's try to be optimistic. China, unlike Russia, has a greater economy and more integrated to the world than its ally. Moreover, China doesn't seek to change every institution, but want to be more and more dominant. While it is really chauvinist and aggressive, Xi Jinping is smarter and won't become too reckless unless it is the last choice. Invading Vietnam or Taiwan will not bring fruits immediately.

But, if a dictator sits too long in power, he can suffer delusions about his greatness. The different between King and dictator is: while King reigns a nation without limit, he still needs good advisors to govern a state; a dictator will reign based on ignorance and living in an alternative reality. We can see the difference, Europe's monarchies in Sweden, Denmark, Spain and Belgium carefully build ties while affirming their needs to look at the fact outside - hence their constitutional system. Meanwhile, autocrats like Erdogan in Turkey or recently Putin in Russia rarely understand about outside issues but only see from their eyes. The World War II also gives us lessons, with dictators like Hitler and Stalin ravaged Europe with their alternative knowledge.

Xi Jinping, by now, is still sane. But what will guarantee the Chinese dictator from making his move? As seen with Putin now, Xi is likely to be the same in the future, only with the potential of being more destructive. Will he launch an invasion? Who would be his target? Only time can tell what would occur next. One thing to open our eyes: China has been running war games for a decade. Fortifying islands, sending jet crews to Taiwan, making fights with India and enhancing irredentist sentiment - all appear to be Beijing's gamble. And South China Sea is running to become the next powderkeg with China's actions.