Vietnam used to toe to Putin's narratives. But the invasion of Ukraine and recent Russia's actions probably reshaped Vietnamese thinking.

5 March 2022 would probably be an interesting day for me. In the embassy of Ukraine in Hanoi, Vietnam, the embassy organised a charity event aiming to support Ukraine amidst the ongoing Russian invasion of the country. At the same time, it coincided with a series of football matches in Europe's top leagues - Spain, France, Italy, England and Germany - these leagues have called for the end of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and fans have been showing solidarity.

But that was not something I cared of. I cared about these issues, because Vietnamese state media did not censor these messages, even when they did not declare to do so. When I visited the Ukrainian embassy, the police force didn't prevent me from entering - the gate was open, and Russian war crimes had been displayed by the embassy, open for Vietnamese visitors to raise eyebrows about the reality of Russia - a country that has a special relationship with Vietnam for a long time.

It was not the only thing I read. In Google, Vietnamese media has also shown, in a reluctant way, the war in Ukraine as an invasion by Russia, albeit the word "invasion" was banned by the Hanoi regime - instead, it was the word "attack" as an euphemism to depict it.

This must be unprecedented acts - but this has a deeper meaning. For the first time, the Communist government in Hanoi has spoken, indirectly, a message to Vladimir Putin's Russia:

Get the f*** off from Ukraine, and stop supporting China! We are your ally, but our alliance has a limit.

This message, if this is true, is an astonishing insult to Putin's warmongering regime from a country that was supposed to be an old-time ally and sharing a similar authoritarian mentality. Vietnam has good trade relations with both Russia and Ukraine, these nations used to form the Soviet Union, which North Vietnam had cooperation at all level. Many Vietnamese live in both Russia and Ukraine and Vietnam has built a massive military and economic tie with both entities. A war appeared unacceptable for Hanoi.

But, as I told before, the message was not intended to speak about Russian invasion of Ukraine only - it had another meaning: China. Yes, you know what I mean. But why is China for this affair?

China and Russia have developed a very close relationship in recent years, especially since Xi Jinping, the Chinese dictator, consolidated power. Putin, the Russian dictator since 2000, has found his fondness with China because of their common hatred against the West and their desires to restore old empires' border. To guarantee their goals won't be overlapped into potential military conflicts, Russia and China had signed border agreement in 2004, which Russia and China no longer claimed territory of each other anymore. From then, increasing cooperation at all fields allowed Russia and China to become increasingly belligerent.

For Putin, the current map of Europe is unpromising. Since 1990s, NATO has expanded eastward despite promising Russia not to do so. Putin has to witness Poland, Hungary, Romania, Croatia, Albania, Czech Republic, Slovenia, Slovakia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia to enter the military organisation with dismays. Putin became more suspicious when Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania - three former Soviet states, joined the NATO - in condition with the European Union's expansion as well, though the EU is more economic than a military union like NATO, the 2003 Rose Revolution which toppled pro-Russian Eduard Shevardnadze and replaced by Mikheil Saakashvili, and the 2004 Orange Revolution that saw pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovych lost to pro-Western Viktor Yushchenko in Ukraine. Putin tries to counter, but he only has the Eurasian Economic Union and the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organisation) as a response to NATO, but these organisations are pretty limited.

Hence, Putin's gamble is very simple: power. He has ruled Russia of 200 million people with an iron fist and utilised resources as the mean for his petro-regime. A ruthless dictator like Putin has no quell in using lethal manners if this can achieve his goals - he had done so with Chechnya in 1990s, Georgia in 2000s and Syria in 2010s. The brutality of the Russian regime toward civilians there has always been a stressful matter no one likes. After waging three wars with his blood washed easily, probably Putin thought the same with Ukraine - and the Russian tyrant immediately assembled troops in the border, before finally invaded Ukraine on 23 March 2022. Putin just didn't expect widespread international sanctions bit his regime hard - but it doesn't seem to deter the Russian dictator from his eventual goal - to destroy Ukraine's right to exist before marching his megalomaniac war machine against Moldova, as revealed by Indian channel WION. The real game Putin actually plans for the West is actually not about NATO, it is about to reclaim what Putin sees as the lost soil of the Tsarist/Soviet regimes.

For Xi, his China is far stronger than Russia, both economically, militarily and politically. China is not a petrostate like Russia, it has a far more diversified economy and its global trades are greater than that of Russia. China, as claimed by Indian American columnist Fareed Zakaria, differs greatly from Russia as it doesn't seek to change the current order - but just only wants a greater, if not saying, dominant role on these institutions. China also has billions invested for its ambitious infrastructure projects as part of the One Belt, One Road - which Russia is also a signator. It's also a major economic donor, something Russia cannot offer - hence the credibility to have stability.

But that doesn't mean Xi Jinping easily forget his country's past. Embedded with the resentment against the West since the Opium Wars, Xi Jinping viewed the current order imposing on China and surrounding independent states as unacceptable - and has not hidden ambition to rewrite the map as well. Since Sun Yat-sen first issued the Map of National Shame on 9 May 1915, the day had been observed, both by then-Nationalist China of Chiang Kai-shek, before subsequently revived in 2001 by the Communist government to dedicate its continuation. Note that Mao Zedong also endorsed the revisionist views of China from this map.

It's noteworthy that there are many versions of the maps like that, and they have all been written in a distorted manner - but widely accepted by many Chinese. Xi Jinping's regime has also shown an increasing level of nationalism - China is eager to rewind the history. This was why China has been very imperialistic in recent years - it begins to make territorial claims stretching from Central Asia, India, Nepal, Southeast Asia, South China Sea, East China Sea and Korea, and has aggressively deployed troops, aircrafts and warships, threatened these neighbouring states.

Vietnam's main problem is not with Russia - it is with China. Vietnam and China have a complex historical relationship, for 2,000 years of longevity. It has actually not died down - mostly temporary before another conflict to arrive. While contemporary people see both regimes as communists, these governments are actually not in the same bed. Vietnam and China in modern era had fought a bloody war in 1979, before it escalated into a series of border skirmishes and island invasions by China. This enhanced the deep hatred between Vietnam and China and continues to affect their relations. Vietnam asserts that China is an aggressor in South China Sea (which Vietnam lays claims) and there have been anti-Chinese riots in 2014 and 2018.

But Russia's hidden yet clear support for China complicated everything. Vietnam has a long-standing relationship with Russia for decades since the Cold War and is the largest importer of Russian weapons in Southeast Asia. In addition, many Vietnamese were sent to study in Soviet Union and former communist states in Eastern Europe, and this cooperation has been maintained. Russia, though, starts to feel the pressure to keep Vietnam afloat on its side, and has worked to desert from Vietnam to enhance ties with China (relations between Vietnam and USSR was also pretty complex because Vietnam rarely aligned with USSR's goals despite being allies). Russia has secretly sided with China in Chinese territorial conflicts; and probably as a gesture, China has secretly cheered Russia in its invasion of Ukraine.

This posed a grave danger to Vietnam's sovereign identity - if China can cheer Russia without saying, then probably Putin, a mad tyrant with megalomaniac ambitions, would also cheer China without declaring - and this is a high possibility. This is definitely a damning effect and has forced Vietnam to make its stance clear. But if openly speaking out against Russia, the country may face a problem - unlike India which was neutral in the Cold War, Vietnam wasn't - and Vietnam could lose this vital hardware support. Vietnam has recently diversified its military assets, especially when President Obama lifted lethal weapon embargo in 2016 - but more than a half of Vietnamese arms are still from Russia - showing that attempts to move away from Russia won't be as simple as expected. It was the same reason that Vietnam tacitly sympathised with Russian rebels in Donetsk, Luhansk and Russian takeover of Crimea back in 2014.

Therefore, to demonstrate the modern disdain, the Hanoi cadres had issued a message without speaking. By allowing the Ukrainian embassy to open its charity operation and condemning Russian aggression; by allowing channels without publicly naming, to speak against Russian assault - the government of Vietnam has been questioning whenever if Russia has its morality left talking (Russia's ally China has censored any pro-Ukrainian or anti-war publications). But more to say, Russian support for China will be taken to table in a time that could be specified - because from the view of Hanoi, the "Vietnamese-Russian ties are not for granted - we would dump it if we feel we are attacked".