Widespread Russian public support for Putin's invasion of Ukraine could be an inspiration for Xi Jinping if he wants to wage a similar war in Asia

When Ukraine's Active Group released their survey about how do Russians view their country's invasion of its neighbour Ukraine, the result was a massive shock: 86.6% of Russians tolerate and support the potential assault on the territory of the European Union. In addition, the other results as followed could also examine this: 75.5% of Russians approve the idea of a military invasion in the next country. Moreover, according to the survey, 75% of respondents tolerate to a varied extent the use of nuclear weapons by their government. Only 13.4% of Russians have a negative attitude to the military invasion in other countries, 46% of respondents are absolutely sure that the Russian government should attack the EU, and 40.6% assume a permissible expansion of hostilities.

In the same survey, three countries that according to the poll will be targeted by Russia are: Poland (75.5%), the Baltic countries, among which Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia (41%), Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary (39.6%). In the survey, respondents had the opportunity to select several countries. In an attempt to truly understand the real extent of Russian aggressive behaviour, sociologists decided to further explore by using a telephone (via the Viber messenger) survey was conducted according to the formatted methodology (the sample is representative according to the subject of the federation, sex and age of the respondent). Mandatory language for the Russian environment was used in the drafting of the questions. Thus, instead of “invasion” and “war” in the survey the word “special operation” was used, Ukrainian security forces were called “Nazis” etc. Of course, instead of “in Ukraine” it was said “on Ukraine”.

Andriy Eremenko, who was part of the same survey, stated that: “The general impression of the poll is that Russians who have agreed to communicate with interviewers are aggressive not only towards Ukraine, but also towards the EU. Respondents either refuse to communicate after learning the topic of the interview, or declare their readiness to support and approve further Russian incursions into other countries”.

Of course, the survey may not actually answer the bottom everything from Putin's madness or his people backing his imperialistic regime, but it reveals a frightening fact: Putin's brutal bloodbath in Ukraine has strong response backing him and his regime to continue, despite the poor logistical performance of the Russian military. Moreover, Putin does not believe on his miscalculation, if this can actually allow him to sustain his propaganda.

This leads us to a long-standing question: what if Xi Jinping also believes about it?

Remember that Xi Jinping, since becoming President in 2012, has begun a massive crackdown on opponents within the party and enhances state propaganda to control the narratives. His effort was guaranteed when he gained absolute power in the Communist Party, being its Chairman, General Secretary and the country's President. Moreover, the two-term limits, set up by Deng Xiaoping, was abolished in 2018, strengthened Xi's absolute power like an emperor.

Being already elevated to the level of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping, Xi Jinping has shown a greater desire to make China become increasingly assertive and aggressive. China has been actively promoting nationalist propaganda, claiming territories of its neighbours, from countries like Nepal, Kazakhstan, South Korea to Vietnam, as well as using Belt and Road Initiative to lure poorer nations to debt. It has also piled up its attempt to conduct censorship against even South Korean boybands and anime characters, using its angry youth nationalists (fenqing) to spread state disinformation. It has resisted investigation about coronavirus origin in Wuhan and instead deflected blames on the United States, imposing trade embargoes on Australia (which was the first country to question China's transparency). Moreover, China has recently provided economic lifeline for Russia while having its nationalist population backing Moscow's war despite not actively supporting Putin's aggression on Ukraine in order to avoid being seen as a partner in crime (it was believed that China knew the invasion Putin intended to wage against Ukraine). And this all came from the top of the Zhongnanhai regime.

This may have a hidden reason: China is not afraid to copy what Putin is doing. Of course, China is different from Russia, a lot. China has a very gigantic economy, greatly diversified in economic development, and deeply connected to international trades; Beijing has more to lose when making commercial trades to many nations in the West. Russia, meanwhile, is a corrupt petrostate that struggles to find its footstep since the fall of the Soviet Union with its economy only to the size of Italy, and contributes only 5% of the overall global economy. But deep end, the Chinese leadership, like the Russian leadership, shares an imperialist revisionist agenda willing to glorify the past of their despotic leaders and wish to emulate them. Similar to Putin's revisionist speech toward Ukraine which served as Putin's first real step in reconstructing his Tsarist/Soviet Empire, Xi Jinping and his administration also have their own version of Chinese imperial rebuilding: Map of National Shame.

A version of Map of National Shame back in 1926.

Of course, the Map of National Shame has many versions, it is not a monolith map. Dated back from Sun Yat-sen's Republic of China (ROC) era, it was sustained and used by the Communists and became commemorated officially by the authorities of the People's Republic of China (PRC) since 2001. Despite the diversities, one thing is clear: China wants to restore its imperial domain and sees it the centre, true to its Mandarin name. As argued by Tseng Hui-Yi and Samuel S. Kim decades before Deng Xiaoping's reforms, China saw these lost territories are: Ceylon (Sri Lanka), various Indian Ocean islands like the Maldives and Seychelles, India-controlled Kashmir, Ladakh, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh (South Tibet), Nepal, Bhutan, the entire Southeast Asia, Afghanistan, Central Asia, Mongolia, Russia-controlled Outer Manchuria and Sakhalin, the entire of East Asia (notably Ryukyu, Korea and Taiwan), alongside regions like East Turkestan/Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong and Macau.

Throughout the time, the PRC authorities have only given up the claims over Sakhalin and Outer Manchuria, as part of growing Russo-Chinese axis, in exchange for Russia ceding an island near the Chinese border, controlled Chinese migration to Russia and growing Russian economic concession toward China. Since then, Chinese media has toed deeply in favour to Putin's Russia and its population, by far, has been happy with Putin's strongman appearance. Long before the Ukrainian organisation made their survey, Chinese netizens, under heavily censored internet, have already shown supports en masse to Putin's war in Ukraine. Although opposition was voiced, they were easily censored or either overwhelmed by Chinese nationalists.

It's not so hard why Chinese, by large, are likely to look for a similar dream of reconquest. Except Outer Manchuria and Sakhalin as listed above, China has done more calamities to its neighbours than helping. Mao Zedong initiated an invasion of Korea under the mask of the Volunteer's Army, divided Korea to half and installed a puppet, though far from being friendly to Beijing, still submits to Chinese demands. China launched two invasions of India in 1962 and 1967, occupied Aksai Chin which is part of Kashmir. Deng Xiaoping ordered his army to invade Vietnam in 1979 after Vietnam toppled his ally Pol Pot's Khmer Rouge, launching several naval assaults to occupy various Paracel and Spartly islands. China has used its economic and military clouts to ensure Myanmar remains unstable, arming both the government and ethnic rebels. Recently, Beijing has also several times sent troops crossing the border of Central Asian nations without informing the hosts, mostly toward Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. It has also sought to take all South China Sea and East China Sea. At home, it has made violent annexations of Xinjiang and Tibet, oppressing the Tibetan Buddhists and Turkic Uyghur Muslims. It has also made the Anschluss on Hong Kong.

While China is not run by a psychopath KGB dictator like Russia, at least for now, Xi Jinping is slowly walking to that Putin's path - and this is very likely to occur in near future. As we have seen before, sanctions against Putin's Russia has depreciated the country's economy severely, its ruble has been in freefall, many foreign brands are leaving Russia and its economic gamble abroad has been failing disastrously. Yet Putin remains defiant and even eager to extend his war beyond Ukraine, he has rejected International Court demanding his army to quit Ukraine, and even holding a state-organised rally celebrating the annexation of Crimea, echoing the same "Special Military Operation" and threatened to put the war to the brink of total destruction by using nuclear weapons.

Xi Jinping is similar to Putin by his ego. Initially, he came to the rule with good intentions, but slowly revealing him ambitions and even growing disregard of human beings, before finally suffers from the illusion of making his Chinese Dream come true. Unlike Russian nationals that had some of their freedom (though crippled now), Chinese nationals do not have, making them more prone to state disinformation - and further granting Chinese regime a sense of total war can be unleashed with full immunity.

Taiwan is China's next target on Beijing's empire reconstruction. But who can guarantee that China will stop at Taiwan? Putin's wars in Ukraine, Georgia, Chechnya and Syria, as well as growing demands for war against NATO, in particular toward former Soviet satellite states, have demonstrated that a dictator may have no limit of insane imagination, disregard of neutrality for border redrawing even at the cost of economic collapse. Xi Jinping loves to do the same - imagine if Taiwan fell to China, who would be next? Vietnam has been seen with high possibility because of its lack of informal military allies to aid her yet located in a strategic position that counter Beijing; or Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which are vulnerable and Russia rarely cares about these countries, but has a large Turkic and Muslim population sharing solidarity with Uyghurs; Nepal can also be because of recent Nepalese government has turned increasing hostile to China; or Korea, where the South has elected a new, conservative anti-Chinese President. Etc. All will have public backing and mass rally for the government's war efforts.

This is really scary at best. The world's most powerful dictator, sitting in the throne in Zhongnanhai, running the second largest economy in the world, the second strongest military force in this planet and a nationalist, chauvinist population ready for a brutal fight. What else can be even worse when widespread popular support could foster? But that's modern China, the Orwellian order today.