Is Vietnam more similar to Ukraine than Taiwan? We can have both yes and no.

During the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we have heard how the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, bemoaned: “We have been left alone to defend our state. Who is ready to fight alongside us? I don’t see anyone. Who is ready to give Ukraine a guarantee of Nato membership? Everyone is afraid.” His cry during the early days of the brutal, barbaric Russian invasion of Ukraine underscored that fear. Even though Russia has been repelled from much of Ukraine's north, the Russian troops had not been completely chased out of east and south.

This has led to widespread public speculation, and the most popular has always been Taiwan to Ukraine. This comparison has only come greater and greater by size, and this is fuelled by many similarities, from political system to border. Yet, a much less popular comparison draws Vietnam, instead of Taiwan, as facing a dangerous dilemma more than Ukraine, first stressed by Derek Grossman before echoed by Filipino-Iranian columnist Richard Heydarian.

As we have gone by now, Taiwan has been more to be addressed than Vietnam, but Mr Grossman and Mr Heydarian are both respected scholars, so their fears of Vietnam are not unfounded. To get the better picture, how Vietnam and Taiwan are likely to be dragged will depend on various circumstances.

Taiwan to Ukraine

Eastern European expats protested against Russian invasion of Ukraine in Taipei on 28 February 2022.

Taiwan has been far more popular when it comes to this dangerous issue.

There are plenty of reasons and they are not hard to see: Taiwan is a thriving democracy and has desired to become more integrated economically and politically with the democratic camp; Taiwan shares historical bond with China, but has been persuading a different identity since democratisation in 1990s; Taiwan is very close to China in geography as well, put her under constant threats from Beijing, which drives close comparison between Ukraine and Russia. It is worth noting that China has never renounced the use of force against Taiwan in case Taiwan declares independence.

But then, differences are also plenty, that even China shrugged off this comparison.

Taiwan, unlike Ukraine, has a gigantic economy and sizeable investment projects abroad, while Ukrainian economy is small. Yet it is bounded with the One China Policy (the official name of Taiwan is Republic of China), crippled the country of making formidable ties with the rest, hence only 14 nations recognised her (Taiwan has semi-official relations via Trade Offices abroad serving as de facto embassy) and China does not even recognise Taiwan as a country but a renegade province. Moreover, Taiwan has a long-standing relationship with the United States, which has persuaded the "strategic ambiguity" to deter Beijing, and frequently sells weapons to Taiwan - this means Taiwan also forms unofficial alliances with Japan, South Korea, India and Australia. Also, while Taiwan is close to China, Taiwan is actually helped by being separated with a sea strait, unlike Ukraine which has an unfortunate land border with Russia.

But what set Taiwan apart is the semiconductor industry of the island being the largest in the world, which is impressive for a small island. Even military hardware today relies deeply in semiconductors made in Taiwan, and this has weakened China's prospect to invade the island, at least for now. China has sought to become less reliant toward its Taiwanese counterpart, but has little success so far.

Nonetheless, growing threat from China has also prompted Taiwan to conduct a massive reorganisation program, and Taiwan has sought Ukraine as an inspiration as well.

Vietnam

Anti-Chinese unrest in Vietnam back in 2018 following a controversial attempt to set up an economic zone by Hanoi.

Vietnam is a less popular scenario, but has been frequently dragged in recent days.

Similarities between Vietnam and Ukraine are also plenty. Vietnam, like Ukraine, shares a border with a powerful giant, in that case for Vietnam, China. Vietnam is, like Ukraine, a poor country that only begins to fire up with a growing economic investment from abroad. Vietnam is also unfortunate because of the government itself - Vietnam has a "Four Nos" principle, which forbids Vietnam from joining military alliance - mirroring that of Ukraine, which has no NATO membership status as well, although Vietnam's Four Nos has been largely a disaster due to the timid leadership Vietnam has. The memoirs of 1979 Chinese invasion of Vietnam runs deep among Vietnamese, like how Ukrainians view Russian invasion and its previous occupation of Crimea in 2014, and a key reason why the communist bond soured into returning historical resentment.

Yet, while similarities are here, differences are also there, even huge.

Vietnam, like China, is run by an autocratic communist government that has opened its economy since 1986, albeit different in the way how these parties interpret communist philosophy (Vietnam is Marxist-Leninist but de-Stalinised itself, while China is Maoist with a Confucianist-Stalinist trait recently imposed by Xi Jinping), this is not with Ukraine, which has been fighting to preserve its democracy since 1991. Vietnam has no military alliance to join due to its own, but it has been a member of the ASEAN, an economic organisation, as a guarantee; Ukraine is not NATO and neither is a European Union member. Moreover, the government of Vietnam is secretive within due to its authoritarian nature, while Ukraine has strived to have a more opened government and society. This, in turn, leads to distrust toward the United States, as the communist rulers in Hanoi fears the U.S. would advance its agenda to remove the party from within - though in some case, it also fears that a future China's invasion could also demolish the party because the communist party would be forced to face a dilemma of either keeping or abandoning to avoid association with China's counterpart, which has a far stronger power than Vietnam has.

Literally speaking, Vietnam's authoritarianism stands contradicted from Ukraine's democratic struggle and this made comparison very unreliable as well, although threat from bullies like China and Russia are also highlighted.

Which is closer to Ukraine, Vietnam or Taiwan?

China's current actions and behaviours would suggest more of Taiwan. Xi Jinping has vowed to "reunify" Taiwan by all cost. Since 2021, Chinese jets have frequently appeared in Taiwan's ADIZ (Air Defence Identification Zone) and President Joe Biden has suggested that the United States "would defend Taiwan", a breakthrough from the previous administrations.

Yet as Vietnam and China remain in quagmire due to historical tensions, 1979 war memory and recent South China Sea clashing, China has also increased its military activities near Vietnam as well. China has installed a missile base, militarised the border with Vietnam by increasing troops and recently proceeded with a military drill. Vietnamese reactions have been criticised by domestic population as weak and unsuitable with only diplomatic protests only, even though the inadequate military power may have played a role.

Different circumstances have set Taiwan and Vietnam into unique positions when comparing to Ukraine, sometimes world apart. Taiwan is more closer to Ukraine when it comes to politics and social similarities, as well as ethnic links. Vietnam is more closer to Ukraine when it comes to geography, history of invasion and being isolated politically for a sovereign nation (Taiwan is not a sovereign state by full sense).

In the end, if anything makes Vietnam and Taiwan related to Ukraine, then we can have both "yes" and "no", or 50/50 to be fair. But Ukrainian resistance, oddly enough, has succeeded in delaying China from embarking a military adventure against Taiwan or Vietnam, at least for now.