Latin American governments do not want to upset Russia, but the people of Latin America appear to be increasingly hostile to Russia following its invasion of Ukraine

When the United Nations voted for the resolution ES-11/1 condemning Russian invasion on 2 March, the outcome was not a surprise: Russian invasion was widely condemned. Moscow only got 4 votes against, while the rest were either neutral/absent or in favour.

Among those who voted in favour, a significant portion of countries that advocated the pull out of Russian troops from Ukraine, were from Latin America and the Caribbean. Almost these countries here have expressed unwillingness to join the sanctions against Russia due to specific reasons - but the population here, enraged by Russian supports for autocrats and dictators in here, have used the invasion of Ukraine to fuel their angers - much to the dismay of the Putin's dictatorship in Moscow.

The UN solution vote on 2 March 2022. Almost every Latin American countries voted in favour of condemning Russia.

Vladimir Putin, to be precise, has little interests in going after Latin America, because of the region's rather different history, until mid-2000s. Unlike Africa, where the fresh memories of European colonisation up until mid-20th century have never vanished, the Latin American states have been in its own feet since 19th century. Indeed, these nations won independence from Portugal, France and Spain when Russia was, at that time, struggling to recover from the devastating Napoleonic Wars. When the Soviet Union tried to export its brand of revolution, still, it attracted some supporters, most notably Che Guevara, the Argentine revolutionary (though Guevara's ideology made him incompatible with USSR). Communist regime in Cuba, installed by Fidel Castro, had survived since 1960s despite relatively isolated and impoverished economically. This alarmed the United States, and the Americans decided to arm right-wing juntas in there, notably Mexico, Colombia, Guatemala, Chile, Argentina and Brazil. These authoritarian military governments were able to suppress all forms of communist brand while at the same time, these states were exposed of the horror communists could do to the civilians of Eastern Europe and Asia. And these are the things that would matter most.

Eastern Europe and Asia were some of the largest sources of migration to Latin America in the past, though the level is much to debate. Many came to these Latin American nations to search for new life, regardless of political affiliation. The movement was far longer than before communists rose to power in there, but the effect remains strong regardless. For instance, Argentina is home to a significant Ukrainian population that fled Ukraine during the Soviet and Nazi occupation. Peru, Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama and Chile had been home to many Chinese and Japanese refugees during early 20th century. Uruguay and Brazil are home to a significant Polish population, with Brazil hosting the largest Polish diaspora in Latin America. Croatian diaspora also existed, and even more widespread across Latin America, reaching peak during the Yugoslav communist regime, to name a few. Later on, during the Pinochet dictatorship in Chile, Taiwanese and Chinese anti-communists were invited to settle; while Argentina also had a similar program for Laotian and Cambodian refugees escaping communist terror.

These anti-communist connections helped to explain the mess that pit Russian power struggle harder than expected. While Moscow has some success so far in Cuba and recently Venezuela, Nicaragua and Bolivia, these Russia-leaning regimes are not economically capable and probably not even worth a penny. Despite having deployed mercenaries from Wagner Group to fortify the Venezuelan regime of Nicolás Maduro, Russia could not develop a similar robust response like that of the United States with NATO, which is why these nations live under constant pressure of could be toppled by the United States because of its communist nature.

Moreover, these Eastern European and Asian diaspora, already experienced Russian "liberation" first hand, have little doubt toward Russia's true intention - to create colonial control and to deplete the livelihood of Latin Americans. These diasporas have a tendency of being right-wing and this is not a great thing for Russia. Back in 1990 when Peru elected Alberto Fujimori, a Japanese by descent, the Peruvian President was quick to stamp out all kind of communist information by violence and intimidation. Also in Peru later on, a President of Polish descent, Pedro Kuczynski, openly denounced the Maduro regime and Russia. In Paraguay, Alfredo Stroessner, whose ancestry came from Germany, had been even more rabidly anti-Russian, seeing how Russia created East Germany.

Currently, the economic factor has played out as the key problem that deter Latin American nations from actively impose sanctions on Russia. While trades between Latin American nations and Russia aren't big, several Latin American states imported several agricultural products from Russia, notably fertilisers and grains, and have chosen neutrality. But at the same time, Latin Americans have been showing their supports for Ukraine, protests in there have broken out in accordance, spread across Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador, Chile, Guatemala, Colombia, Venezuela, Bolivia, Uruguay, Peru and Mexico. There are also reports that volunteers from Ecuador, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, Bolivia and Peru have joined the war on Ukraine's side, both in lethal and non-lethal activities, though it is hard to verify due to warring situation.

Anyway, for the Russian dictator Putin, who is willing to undermine the United States, interfering in Latin America can be lucrative yet can also be dangerous and this is why he didn't make his marks so much in Latin America. Simultaneously, he was happy that Latin American nations said "no" to Western sanctions, only if he did not know how much Latinos hate his country.

So when the resolution was passed out condemning Russia, the overwhelming support calling to probe Russia for war crimes and its invasion of Ukraine from Latin America had put Russia at a strange odd it could not underestimate. For Moscow, their enemies are no invisible, but rather the enemies lie within the public. Latin America is not Africa so deceiving Latin America is harder and maybe counterproductive. No need economic sanctions, sometimes UN votes can affect the outcome.

Now, Russia is trying to distance from Latin America as quick as possible. And that leads to his allies in Venezuela and Bolivia increasingly isolated and fearful of American involvement. Maduro, having defended Putin's war in Ukraine, yet in a surprise move, agreed to exchange American prisoners and would relax his authoritarian law, though the process remains uncertain because Venezuela has actually two, not one, governments (the opposition government is formed by Juan Guaidó, who backed Ukraine) running the same country. Bolivia abstained from the voting while slowed down its anti-American tunes as quick as possible. Leave aside Cuba and Nicaragua, which, while backing Russia, abstained from the vote.

Venezuela's other President, Juan Guaidó, participated in the Caracas protests for Ukraine on 3 March 2022, attended by thousands.

The public uproar against Russia in Latin America can't be underestimated. While Latin America is no ideal due to corruption inside these governments, the people here have mostly chosen the right side - and this is what Putin feared the most when he made his gamble of destabilisation in Latin America. The Russian ship's ambition is sinking in Latin America.