Can the AFC create a separate FIFA Women's World Cup qualifiers? If so, then how should it be played out?

After the 2022 AFC Women's Asian Cup, six slots for the upcoming 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup were decided: defending champions China, former world champions Japan, alongside South Korea, the Philippines, Vietnam and the joint-host nation, Australia, will take part. Among these participants, the Philippines and Vietnam will debut for the first time.

But after the Asian Cup, one thing hangs in question: why does the AFC have no strategic plan to create an independent qualifier to the World Cup? And if it can do it one day, then how will it be?

In term of women's football, Asia is among one of the most successful, second only to Europe. This has been the case since the first Women's World Cup held in China in 1991. Since then, two teams from this part, China and Japan, have jointly appeared in the final three times; the latter became the first Asian team to win the World Cup for the women in 2011. By this point, it should have been the inspiration for future success of Asia's women's football status, if not saying, a total upgrade.

But after the 2019 FIFA Women's World Cup, one thing left behind was not the impressive forms of the Asian sides - but rather a complete failure to boost the women's prowess. In that edition held in France, no Asian team managed to reach the quarter-finals for the first time in since its inception. Thailand was the worst performer, including a thrashing 0-13 defeat to the eventual champions United States and crashed from the group stage with zero point and one goal. Australia was the best performed team from Asia, held on a brave 1-1 draw to former champions Norway before fell in the penalty shootout in the last 16. Japan and China put up only mediocre performances in the competition while South Korea even lost to Nigeria.

Like many parts of the world, women's football has long struggled to develop and frequently suffered discrimination, something not rare regardless of which cultures. But in Asia, the matter is far more turbulent, due to vast disparities of women's football development between the east and the west: for the east, women's football has been encouraged, though at slow speed, and since then countries from the eastern part of the continent have routinely dominated the Women's Asian Cup. These nations also take all the allocated slots for Asia to the World Cup, and Asia's five major women's powerhouses (China, Japan, South Korea, North Korea and Australia) are located there. In the west, where Bedouin culture are more powerful and roles of women are more segregated, women's football cannot develop for too long and thus, while the region has been powerful at the men's level, this is not applied to the women's one. Only Central and South Asia have made some initial progress in women's football, with India being the most successful so far. West Asia has only Jordan and Iran taken part previously.

However, time has changed and there is a historic turn of history page, and this came from Saudi Arabia, the most conservative nation in the world due to its religious position. Saudi Arabia has made international headline by calling every Arab state in the Middle East to make women's football a pillar in their sporting program on its state-run Arab News back in 2020. At first, no Asian, including West Asian Arab nations, believed these Saudi words and they thought the Saudis would not dare to do so. They underestimated Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's resolve and expected nothing less but a sham display by Riyadh. Two years after the article, Saudi Arabia stunned the world by fielding the first-ever women's national football team to a friendly competition in the Maldives - and the West Asian neighbours have been shocked too. Of course, Saudi Arabia's debut came two weeks after the Women's Asian Cup in India, making Saudi Arabia ineligible to compete in the Women's World Cup in Australia and New Zealand.

Still, Saudi power and influence among West Asian states are not to be underestimated, and that means it could spark a potential revolution in women's football of Asia. That also means the AFC must realise that sooner or later, women's football will demand competitiveness and it cannot exclude from it. In one day, it will have to create a separate qualification for the Women's World Cup, instead of just sticking with the old Asian Cup format as a guide to the World Cup. If there is no quick change, women's football in Asia will further plummet in quality. Just in 2019 edition alone, in the quarter-finals of the Women's World Cup, seven out of eight were UEFA members - and one of the technique to UEFA's growth in women's football is none other but a separate qualification as a difference. Of course, it is still controversial, but better have than nothing. Recently, the CONCACAF, which is the home to four-time world champions United States, has already announced the creation of W Gold Cup (will take place in 2024), and will downgrade the W Championship to qualifying phase only, while CONMEBOL is discussing a possible plan to create a separate Women's World Cup qualification for its members as well.

The AFC may learn something by creating a separate qualification space. A separate qualification campaign to the Women's World Cup must be underlined in response to the growing interests in women's football from regions that are traditionally weak like West Asia. Remember that the current President of the AFC is from Bahrain, a country that is very close to Saudi Arabia, and there may have impact from it, which make a separate qualification more likely. It's much more beneficial to have a qualification campaign instead of just hoping to progress in the Women's Asian Cup, something those who are not part of the Asia's big five could not afford by now.

But there are a lot of questions if such a qualifying phase can take place. Saudi Arabia maybe very powerful, but some members are yet to follow. Qatar, Syria, Iraq and Kuwait have their women's teams inactive for years, while Oman and Yemen have not created separate women's football teams. How far will these countries heed to Saudi influence is uncertain. Meanwhile, in the east, which has been proud of being better at women's development, club football of women's teams are still largely underdeveloped. Outside of South Korea, Japan, China and Australia, the rest of the east has not been able to develop similar women's football development programs for too long until now and these women's clubs are still poorly organised, which affects the attempt to recruit women's footballers. Therefore, a qualification phase may force these nations to be hastily reorganise women's football, but without order, could be even more disastrous. Meanwhile, the West Asians also feared that a separate qualification could only weaken further their potential to play in a competitive World Cup as well as exhausting players in an Asian Cup qualifiers. Thus, it will be very difficult to conclude how far will such a separate qualification goes.

As much as the expectation follows, I will think about a hypothetical FIFA Women's World Cup qualification, possibly in the near future since I would doubt it could exist before 2027 or 2031 editions, even when these editions won't be hosted by an AFC member due to Australia's hosting of 2023 edition.

First, we will go to the first round, which would decide the teams going to second phase. In there, we are likely to have Bhutan, Kuwait, Oman, Pakistan, Yemen, Afghanistan, Iraq, Qatar, Kyrgyzstan, Sri Lanka, Brunei and Turkmenistan. These teams are likely to compete to each other at the first place to find the six remaining slots to the second round.

Second, we will allocate these remaining teams into five separate Pots.

• Pot 1: Japan, Australia, China, South Korea, North Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, Chinese Taipei
• Pot 2: Philippines, Myanmar, India, Uzbekistan, Jordan, Iran, Indonesia, Lebanon
• Pot 3: Hong Kong, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Bahrain, Nepal, Palestine, Tajikistan, United Arab Emirates
• Pot 4: Laos, Saudi Arabia, Cambodia, Mongolia, Guam, Singapore, Maldives, East Timor
• Pot 5: Macau, Northern Mariana Islands and the last six winners

It's worth noticing that North Korea, despite being seeded top, is very unclear of its condition to take part in due to political nature, so Pot 1 may swing between either North Korea or the Philippines. This could mean a potential participant from Pot 5 can be drawn from the best of the losers.

The qualifiers are to be drawn by eight groups of five teams. Still, vast disparities in women's football mean it is very hard to believe the Pot 1 teams may slip opportunities easily. Four of the best second-placed teams will go to the final round as well, and the Philippines with Myanmar boast the highest prestige. India, Uzbekistan, Jordan and Iran will fight to preserve their slots.

Third, we will divide into two groups of six. Because FIFA allocates six spots for AFC teams in the Women's World Cup and two playoff spots, the first three of each group will qualify. Fourth-placed teams of these groups will have to enter inter-continental playoffs.

Expecting such a qualification remains to be seen in a distant future, as there has been no sign that the AFC will make it a real business, as women's football remains not a top priority of development by the federation in spite of hosting the only Asian world champions, Japan, up to date. This would not change very quickly unless growing demands are made to handle, like the case of CONCACAF when demands for a separate qualification led to the creation of Gold Cup.

Therefore, teams like Saudi Arabia, Iran, UAE or Jordan are very unlikely to make any further progress, whereas teams like Japan, China, South Korea and Australia will sustain domination at least for a long, long time. Likewise, some forces like the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Chinese Taipei, while unlikely to threaten the big five for a time, they are still too formidable to the rest.

But while expecting changes at national level won't come easily, there would be a new potential development. Some federations, realising that they must become more competitive at women's football to survive the scramble, will have to develop domestic women's leagues. In some cases, this would increase the competitiveness and while it could not be felt immediately, its influence would last for generations to come. At the same time, the AFC Women's Club Championship would have to evolve for good, as club expansion is a must to make football more competitive between female players. And that also means, more pressure for female players to exploit themselves.

In the end, it is still worth to play for. If the AFC can implement a separate qualification phase, it will encourage women's domestic leagues to develop across Asia. And it will force the remainders to reconsider the women's game. But it needs to be taken now, or it will be too late to change the status of the continent as the leading women's football superpower in decline.