India and Vietnam's popular miscalculation of Russian barbarism is effectively making these nations more vulnerable to Chinese aggression

India and Vietnam are being seen as the potential bulwarks against Chinese aggression, largely because of their common hatred against China. However, their political development shows that disliking against China doesn't mean they will join the same fight against Russia, a country that shares similar political structure and authoritarian tendency like China. If anything that teaches us about such an absurd case, then in some parts of the world, Russia is still being viewed as a saviour rather than an imperialist state, which is painfully true to India and Vietnam's case.

This has been observed by the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine. Despite the Russian invasion stalled and faltered due to successful Ukrainian resistance, despite Russian troops' excessive display of barbarism against Ukrainian civilians, still a large portion of Vietnamese and Indians cheer the Russian invaders who are massacring civilians and supporting, loving a dictator that is threatening a nuclear war to destroy the world. Many Indians and Vietnamese, those I have encountered, stunned me by their excessive obsession toward Putin and their complete lack of understanding of history toward Ukraine and Eastern Europe's resistance against the Russian imperialist regime. Moreover, they also justified Russian military actions against Ukraine to disassociate from that of China's, which shows another complete depravity of logic.

Miscalculation is becoming a norm in both India and Vietnam, where pro-Russian feeling still remains strong in some aspects. And two things to be explained about why such a sentiment exists.

Politics

The political obsession toward Russia kickstarted first in Vietnam before reached India. And the path of drug-addicting passion toward Russia has been manifested for more than 80 years, since the Cold War.

Vietnam was a divided state at the time when the Russian encroached. In the south, the French consolidated its control on its attempt to reconquer the former colony. In the north, a communist insurgency led by the Việt Minh had ravaged French efforts, and the French barbarity only further increased support for the Việt Minh. Russia was able to exert influence within by using the newly-established People's Republic of China, led by communist Mao Zedong, to enforce its power. Subsequently, China and the Soviet Union supplied the Communist Việt Minh necessary weapons to fight the French until final victory in Dien Bien Phu 1954. Since then, North Vietnam became slowly dictated and gobbled by the Russian influence, with the Soviet Union backing North Vietnam against the capitalist South Vietnam, supported by the United States, in a civil war known as the Vietnam War. Then, the Russians were able to bring Vietnam to its sphere of influence in the aftermath of Vietnam War, provided with little support in the short-lived Sino-Vietnamese War of 1979. Today, Vietnam is Russia's most loyal ally of Southeast Asia.

India was different. It was a democratic and still is. But India did not come to the arm of Russia until 1971, when, by a blunder, Richard Nixon's obsession with Pakistan led him to dispatch a fleet to aid Pakistan during the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971. The Soviet Union seized the opportunity to demonstrate support for India by doing the same. India was the victor of this war and thus many Indians still attributed Russia as the biggest helper for India. Today, India follows blindly a radical pro-Russian policy, even though relations with the United States have no longer been hostile following the Americans' increasing distance from Pakistan, a major non-NATO ally but with a strained status over terrorism accusation.

Russia also used these links to become the main weapon provider to both countries. Today, 70% of Indian hardware and 60% of Vietnamese one have Russian origins.

Popular

Then, next is the popular support.

Supports for Russia are huge in both India and Vietnam. In India and Vietnam, Russia has long been respected for supporting these nations' struggles against Western imperialism as well as Chinese expansionist agenda, at least since the Soviet Union. These nations still form a significant portion of foreign exchange students studying across Russia, even today.

Such development didn't come by just a night, but political circumstance really provided a favour. This has to be thanked for the Americans' reckless decision to invade Vietnam, or its support to Pakistan, without really understanding the true circumstances that made the situation so horrible. Moreover, the United States' forceful sanctions and embargoes further dissuaded these governments and even large public segments from rebuilding honest ties with the West.

These sentiments help strengthen Russian soft power and even when American film crusades have entered these new, emerging markets after decades of distrust, these nations are still unwilling to trade Russia away anytime soon. Of course, what makes the Russian soft power, while weaker than its Western/Japanese/Korean/Taiwanese rivals, still sustain a powerful place, is due to the past, which is even more prized.

Time has changed. Russia will side with India or Vietnam no longer

Unfortunately, as Russia's power continues to decline, the risk of Russia fully stick with China has increased. And this threat is not just a joke - it is becoming real.

Russia, being a declining power and led by an extremely corrupt, autocratic Putin, has become more entitled to China and, while Putin still visits Vietnam and India due to the past, Putin no longer regards Vietnam and India as important as used to be. Putin has met Xi more than 30 times, larger than Modi or the Vietnamese regime's cadres' meetings, which are less than 9 times.

And this comes with a major issue: economics.

While India and Vietnam share a commonly old and deep diplomatic tie with Russia, these nations have neither the financial muscles or economic understanding China has. In 2021, China has invested over US$2.4 billion in 58 projects across Russia and the number appears to be unchanged even by the time Russia is invading Ukraine. China is also the largest exporter to Russia, having exported over $73 billion last year. By comparison, India only has a very tiny fraction over $3,33 billion last year of export to Russia, far weaker and inferior to that of China, and investment throughout to Russia in the same last year for India might have been just a half to that of China (the Indian government does not release the true number for some political reasons). Even by comparison of major firms, over 40 major Chinese companies, not counting even smaller Chinese firms' branch across Russia, are running riots in the Russian market; while India only has over 1/4 of that to China when investing in Russia and many lack the relevant China's counterparts have. Probably, the gap is even greater between Vietnam and China toward Russia. Vietnam's investment in Russia is only 1/10 while its profits are just a small fraction than that of China's.

With the pathetic economic interests from India and Vietnam toward Russia, unsurprisingly New Delhi and Hanoi have stuck with their own past gamble: weapons. India has been far more self-reliant toward its own defence industry, but over 70% of weapons are still imported from Russia. The number is far higher in Vietnam, with 80%. But lethal weapons can hardly produce anything great for the shambling Putin's Russia, so who can really invest in Putin's Russia without presenting political conditions and can still make it run properly? China. As much as India shows disinterests toward the West and Vietnam's autocratic regime may help, neither can rival China due to Indian and Vietnamese companies often have fragile profiles and weak presence in Russia. As for the result, Indian companies, already in a weaker position than Chinese counterparts, are trying to salvage, while Vietnamese companies are virtually non-existent.

Such a situation leaves India and Vietnam unable to secure Russia's security guarantee. Russia, sure, will not stop selling weapons, but in the heart and mind of the Kremlin psychopath, India and Vietnam are sacred cows ready to be sacrificed.

As for the result, Putin has hindered without declaring, that India and Vietnam should accept Chinese domination. This explained why Russia tacitly, without declaring, supports China's expansionist ambitions in Asia, despite Hanoi and New Delhi "all-out embrace" toward Moscow. Putin, who is a cold-blooded psychopath with little human understanding, won't waste the chance to abandon India and Vietnam when he has the chance - and he views Russia need to stand with regimes that approve Russia and China ruling together. India and Vietnam may approve Russia's authoritarianism, but to think the duo wants to accept a Chinese-based order is nearly unacceptable - thus Putin is likely to throw India and Vietnam to trash can for his gamble with Beijing.

Without money, Russia will quietly loosen support for India and Vietnam, and switch to China will be just a matter of time. Right now, Putin's barbaric invasion of Ukraine has Hanoi and New Delhi buying for free, but not in the near future.

What's waiting India and Vietnam now?

For the current regime of Vietnam and the Indian government, they will continue to buy Russian things, at least, as long as they are still being assured in the false promise that Russia "will not support China" and "will fend them from Western criticism". Indeed, Hanoi has even cancelled drills with the United States back in 2019 and emphasised on a recent attempt to make drills with Russia; while India clears a path for ruble-rupee currency exchange and ongoing faith in pumping India's already struggling investment in Russia.

But this miscalculation may become very costly for both states. Indian and Vietnamese nationals have long loathed the West and have rejected their willingness to repair the mistakes of the past - in which it made Vietnam and India further drowned into troubles without supports. Currently, Hanoi's weak-mouth reactions toward China, and India's confusing attempt to combat Chinese threat, are helping Beijing to woo further.

And China is not a stupid player. Had China been that dumb, it would have made a political mistake by planning a military assault without backup or historical judgement. The Chinese regime knows so well that India and Vietnam (including their nationals)'s historical obsession toward Russia is a fair advantage China can use. Not for good thing - but rather to lure the Russians away from both. China also knows anti-Western expression among Indians and Vietnamese, be it government or populace, have further isolated both, the worse for Vietnam, from getting security guarantee (at least India still has QUAD to live).

China is making a massive charm offensive series in Russia. China is the largest Asian investor in Russia and Chinese companies have built up fortunes in this vast but increasingly disconnected market. Money from China has become more and more important as Russia, cut off from every major financial institution in the world, only has China-backed institutions to stay afloat. India and Vietnam neither have such abilities to project for smaller nations, to say trying with a big, prideful nation like Russia. In the end, in a competitive world that requires strong financial and political power, India and Vietnam are nothing compared to China.

But the myopic and somewhat backward-alike thinking of both India and Vietnam, as well as their popular anti-Western sentiment in some parts, are further holding, lighter for India and harsher for Vietnam, the prospect to get needed security guarantees. Sticking with Russia unlikely brings the wanted future, as economically and politically, Russia has become far weaker than before the invasion of Ukraine. Adding with growing Russian distance from some of her Asian allies due to diverging development, China is becoming the only one that can fill the hole.

If to select which one that may become a warning sign, Israel will be suited. Under Putin's Russia, Israel and Russia have elevated into strategic partnership and both nations share visions of illiberal order, albeit Israel is a democracy and aligned to the United States. Despite some minor incidents, Israel and Russia have worked together in Syria, Libya and even commonly against Turkey. However, after Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov made his statement claiming Adolf Hitler, the WWII Nazi leader, had Jewish origin, the Russian government immediately tweeted support for Lavrov's claim, blasting Israel as a neo-Nazi sympathiser for supporting Ukraine. This really angers Israel and may impact in Israel's potential decision in the near future against Russia. This can't come in such a moment so dark like this, especially given Israel's close-to-teeth relations with both Vietnam and India, both two nations are the largest importers of Israeli techs and weapons, former is 3rd and the latter is 1st.

The way how Israel being recently treated by Putin's regime in Russia may soon be applied for India and Vietnam. For India, Russia's support toward Kashmir may change anytime soon if Russia is unhappy. Meanwhile, Vietnam is being used as a gift to China by Moscow in exchange for economic trades, Vietnam is losing its place as a special nation in the eyes of the Russian dictator without knowledge.

The longer Vietnam and India continue their desperate quest of pleasing Russia, these countries are likely to become the victims of a future Chinese aggression. The West has made clear that it will not want to help too much because of political concerns about anti-Western sentiment among Indians and Vietnamese, while Russia has little interests for any security guarantees for both states, Moscow already sees New Delhi and Hanoi increasingly obsolete. Russia is making Israel a good testing mice for India and Vietnam and Putin may soon apply when China needs. Overall, didn't Putin and Xi together make a joint declaration of "no limit" cooperation?

In Hinduism, the major religion of many Indians, cow is a sacred animal, but can also be sacrificed to appease God since 4th century BCE. India and Vietnam are facing that Hindu-like story: Russia feels India and Vietnam like cow milks, but may soon sacrifice both to appease China, which is treated like a God for many Russians today. But politics are not religious rituals, and this can be very dangerous if Russia is eager to sacrifice India and Vietnam for China.